Offseason Bios: Murray'd to the Mob

Team: Murray'd to the Mob
Owner: Candice Anderson
2012 Finish: 8-5, 4th place overall
Budget as of 1/1/13: $83.00
Draft Pick Situation: 2013: No RD1, 2014: No RD1, extra RD4
Contract Years Committed to 2013 (filled to reflect a full starting lineup of players): 29


RFA-eligible Players (likely to be retained in red):
Michael Bush, Rashard Mendenhall, Brandon Stokley, Tony Gonzalez (ret.), Justin Tucker, Nick Fairly, Quinton Coples, Jason Babin, Cameron Jordan, Greg Hardy, AJ Hawk, MIN Off, Fred Jackson, Jalen Parmale, Kevin Boss, Jon Beason, 

Projected 2013 Starting Lineup:*

QB: Andy Dalton
RB: Doug Martin
RB: Demarco Murray
WR: Vincent Jackson
WR: Steve Smith
FLEX: Jordy Nelson
TE: Kyle Rudolph
PK:  X
PN: Dustin Colquitt
DE/DT1:  X
DE/DT2:  X
DE/DT3:  X
DE/DT4:  X
LB1: James Harrison
LB2: D'Quell Jackson
LB3: Brian Urlacher
CB1:  Charles Tillman
CB2: Alterraun Verner
S1: Kam Chancellor
S2: LaRon Landry
OFF: X

TS:
Jake Locker
LaVon Brazil
Keyshawn Martin
Stephen Hill


*No RFAs are used to make this lineup.

Weaknesses:
We're talking playoff teams now so there aren't many weaknesses.  Candice made some quick deals throughout 2012 as she tried to patch together a title run around injuries to key personnel.  Doug Martin was a stud from the start and the addition of Demarco Murray should stabilize the RB2 position.  Unfortunately it was at the cost of Tom Brady, and Candice will need Andy Dalton to take at least a small step forward in order to get starter-level production from the QB position.  All other positions have above-average starters assuming that Jordy Nelson can stay healthy.  The big black eye is the DE/DT position but this is the best offseason to head into without a strong player commitment on the defense.  If Candice does her research she should be able to make that position at least average fairly easily.  The sad truth, however, is that her ability to compete again in 2013 is hampered greatly by her lack of depth, relative lack of funds and lack of top picks to use in trade or to acquire face position backups.  If Nelson/Murray/Jackson/Rudolph miss time again next season there isn't the roster depth in order to keep the team afloat, and the assets that could be used to bring in stop-gap players were spent doing that same thing in 2012.

Likely Off Season Targets:
Again, without extra picks and/or cash to trade, or a surplus of starter-worthy players, I anticipate a quiet offseason for Candice, at least on the trade front.  I'm predicting a goodly amount of low-cost signings to buy-low on some upside bench talent.  Candice will certainly have some nice roster flexibility and if she plays it right will have room to take on unfavorable contracts for discounts on any mid to late-season trades.  During UFA I see her bidding any potential RB starters up to at least the $15-20 range.  She has the top talent to get back to the big dance but needs the safety net.

Hypothetical Trades:
None.  She made them all last season.

In all honesty the best trades for Candice this offseason (aside from an unpredictable steal) are no trades.  The held assets are likely of more value than what they would gain in trade, and the biggest threat to her team is that Phil Sanders or Kommissar trade one of their "extra" elite QBs.  Andy Dalton was the 13th best QB, but the 8th best starting QB because a few teams carried multiple QBs in the top 15.  If Phil or John send Russel Wilson or Cam Newton to a team where they'd start every week Dalton loses a ton of value for Candice.  Sit tight, hold onto your cards and hope for some luck in the health department.

2013 Outlook:
Another team on the edge.  Candice has the advantage of being an extremely active owner, so if a bargain presents itself she'll be in a position to take advantage.  That being said, 2012 was a year that she burned through some cash/player/pick reserves to really go for a title, and that puts her at a disadvantage compared to teams that saved their resources.  I expect Doug Martin to slip a bit from his 2012 production but for Murray to compensate, making her comfortably a top-6 team.  I feel that without another Doug Martin-level infusion in 2013 that she fails to crack the top-4 again though.  Call it "Sunny with a chance of playoffs", but more likely we'll see only one Anderson in the Big Dance in 2013.

Offseason Bios: Mushin no Shin

Team: Mushin no Shin
Owner: Anthony Lebude
2012 Finish: 6-7-0, 5th place overall
Budget as of 1/1/13: $102.00
Draft Pick Situation: 2013: No RD1 or RD3, 2014: No RD1
Contract Years Committed to 2013 (filled to reflect a full starting lineup of players): 34


RFA-eligible Players (likely to be retained in red):
Felix Jones, Eric Decker, Jeremy Maclin, Antonio Gates, Paul Kruger, Chris Long, Jo-Lonn Dunbar, Paul Pozluszny, Sean Weatherspoon, Richard Sherman, Aquib Talib, Mark Barron, Earl Thomas, Pierre Thomas, Chris Clemons

Projected 2013 Starting Lineup:*

QB: Colin Kaepernick
RB: Ray Rice
RB:  X
WR: Julio Jones
WR: Justin Blackmon
FLEX: Ryan Williams
TE: Jason Witten
PK:  X
PN:  X
DE/DT1: JJ Watt
DE/DT2: Haloti Ngata
DE/DT3:  X
DE/DT4:  X
LB1: Aldon Smith
LB2: Navarro Bowman
LB3: Luke Kuechly
CB1:  Carlos Rogers
CB2:  X
S1:  X
S2:  X
OFF: X

TS:
Isaiah Pead
Bernard Pierce
Robert Turbin
David Wilson
Michael Floyd
*No RFAs are used to make this lineup.

Weaknesses:
Running back.  Good Lord...the running backs.  After a blockbuster deal netted Anthony JJ Watt and Aldon Smith at the cost of Jamal Charles AND CJ Spiller the RB position is pure desolation after Ray Rice.  The secondary also needs some re-loading but available RFAs will be cheap enough and come back.  There are a few candidates in the Taxi Squad in Pead, Turbin, Pierce and (best of all) Wilson but to have a chance at the playoffs Anthony will likely need at least 2 to pan out considering his lack of draft picks.  In terms of cash he sits right in the middle and should be priced out of the top tier of available RFA and UFA RBs.  Without big upgrades at RB2 and Flex this is a lineup with no future, though Watt/Smith will compensate somewhat by virtue of their positional dominance.

Likely Off Season Targets:
With really just the 1 black eye in his lineup I expect Anthony to target any and all available RBs through trade and straight cash offers.  Ironically his best trade partner is likely Nils, the manager that he traded his RBs TO just a scant few months ago.  I also expect Anthony to make a play for some depth WR/QB players as Fitzpatrick is not an adequate QB2 and if Justin Blackmon and Maclin haven't figured out their inconsistency issues they will need to be replaced.  Mid to low-level players in the $5-$15 range during the UFA if a trade can't be worked seems like the best bet.

Hypothetical Trades:
Ray Rice and $50 for CJ Spiller and Jamal Charles
$50 for CJ2K
$30 for 2014 RD1 pick

2013 Outlook:
Right on the edge.  Some people may not have realized this, but under the new scoring system (visible in the demo league "BORT Playground") JJ Watt was a top-25 player OVERALL.  His addition is a massive upgrade to Mushin no Shin and will allow Anthony to start below-average players at traditionally strong scoring positions.  That being said, Ryan Williams is not an RB2, and an "X" is not a starting Flex.  Armed with limited resources it will be difficult to gain starters at multiple positions but if it can be done I predict a playoff berth for Anthony.  If it can't be done, 5-8 sounds about right.

Offseason Bios: The Magnetic Turf

Team: The Magnetic Turf
Owner: Phil Sanders
2012 Finish: 7-6-0, 6th place overall
Budget as of 1/1/13: $93.00
Draft Pick Situation: 2013 and 2014 all intact

Contract Years Committed to 2013 (filled to reflect a full starting lineup of players): 43


RFA-eligible Players (likely to be retained in red):
Benjarvus Green-Ellis, Mikel Leshoure, Michael Brockers, William Moore, Jeff Demps

Projected 2013 Starting Lineup:*

QB: Robert Griffin III
RB: Alfred Morris
RB: Steven Jackson
WR: Brandon Marshall
WR: Victor Cruz
FLEX: Titus Young
TE: Vernon Davis
PK:  X
PN:  X
DE/DT1: Carlos Dunlap
DE/DT2: Calais Campbell
DE/DT3:  X
DE/DT4:  X
LB1: David Harris
LB2: Karlos Dansby
LB3: Dannell Ellerbe
CB1:  Javier Arenas
CB2: Patrick Peterson
S1:  X
S2:  X
OFF: X

TS:
Vick Ballard
LaMichael James
TY Hilton
AJ Jenkins
Rueben Randle

*No RFAs are used to make this lineup.

Weaknesses:
The Quarterback Massive Attack of 2012, Phil is so rich at that position that he could probably afford to put them in a vault and dive into them ala Scrooge McDuck.  The other positions...were not so stacked.  Inconsistent production from the Law Firm and Mikel "Row your boat" Leshoure made the RB2 position a wild card from week to week and the Flex was even less reliable with Titus Young unable to get out of his own way in Detroit.  Happily FA acquisition Alfred Morris was a lottery ticket that made good and allowed Phil to plug and play at least one reliable back.  A lack of depth at both RB and WR, combined with easily the most concentrated talent at QB in the league would have seemed to many to be the perfect recipe for a trade but none materialized and Phil missed out on the playoffs despite having 5 players finish in the overall top-20 in scoring.  Aside from those weak spots it's probably time to conclude that Vernon Davis might just be the Eli Manning of his position; one who only shows up in the playoffs and otherwise underwhelms.

Likely Off Season Targets:
Phil has a mid-sized stack of cash to play with in the offseason and all of his draft picks, not to mention the two largest trade chips in the league in Matty Ice, RGIII and Cam Newton (assuming he'd keep one).  That being said, elite chips are only worth trading if you can get elite value for them, and I'm not sure that Phil can.  Only 2 BORT teams have a pressing need for a QB, Chinese Mafia and Buffalo Stampede, and neither of those teams has anything really close to the kind of package to offer in trade that Phil seems to want.  A 2012 pre-season offer of Demarco Murray and 4 RD1 picks was rejected and I don't see either Jeremy or Da putting together an offer larger than that.  That being said, an RB1 and/or a TE1 are really the only free positions with large replacement value for Phil, so if a trade is done I expect one there.  Vick Ballard and TY Hilton will provide the depth there, so it's really only top-level talent that will improve Phil's squad.

Hypothetical Trades:
Matt Ryan for Adrian Peterson and RD1 pick
Matt Ryan for Darren McFadden, Heath Miller and 2014 RD2 pick
Robert Griffin III for Aaron Hernandez and 3 RD1 picks
$70 for CJ Spiller

2013 Outlook:
Looking good, but it will take action.  Like Buffalo Stampede last week, The Magnetic Turf is a team with elite enough players at marquee positions and enough terrible holes at other positions that replacing those holes with even league average players will result in huge upticks in performance.  Unfortunately for Phil, even league average players at RB2/TE1/WR3 are already rostered, so it will take trades to secure them.  Without a trade I expect another season in the 7-6 range and a 50-50 shot at the playoffs, but if he can get full value for any of his 3 elite signal-callers expect Phil to put up huge numbers and finish around 9 wins and a possible round 1 bye.