What is Replacement Level? WR

As we approach Opening Day tomorrow, the dust has just begun to settle on the fictional field of play on BORT after a furious off season.  As the "Roster Right" deadline has passed, a question comes to mind.  Are the rosters really "right"?  Are there valuable contributors languishing in obscurity on the waiver while rubes such as say, Antonio Gates are rostered?  Well, yes.  But how do we know when we're paying a fictitious paycheck to someone that's draining points each week by being worse than their waiver wire counterpart?  We find the replacement level.  We look at the contributing value of our currently rostered players compared to the best possible replacement player available.  And today, we first look at WR.

Last season there were 10 teams on Rocky Top.  With 2 WR slots apiece, we're looking at 20 WR at a minimum that should be rostered.  With each NFL team having 1 nominal starting RB, that means that there were 12 starting RBs available to start at the FLEX position.  The 21st highest scoring RB however, only averaged 10.82 points per week (Michael Turner), almost a full point less than the 30th highest scoring WR (Brian Hartline at 11.61).  So conceivably more teams were using WR at their flex than RBs unless they happened to have 3 of the top 15 or so RBs.  The 11th TE, Jermain Gresham, only scored 9.83pts/week so no teams would be expected to use a TE at their FLEX.  So we're looking at roughly 30 WRs rostered and started on BORT.  There are 10 "bench" spots per team, and if we allocate 3 of those 10 to WR (with 3 going to RB, 1 to QB and 3 to defensive players) you get 60 WR that should be rostered at any given time.  There were 62 WR on rosters at the end of 2012, so we're looking good.

The 61st highest scoring WR last season was Kenny Britt at 9.03pts/week, but he missed 2 weeks, thus depressing his point total.  If you take the mean of the ppw scores for WRs 60-65, however, you get 8.71pts/week.  That is what we will use as our replacement value.  It's a bit skewed because of Desean Jackson's 11.45pts/week, so let's approach it a different way and see if we come up with the same answer.

Sorting the 2012 WR output by ppw instead of total points gives us Andrew Hawkins as our 61st player at 9.56pts/week.  Averaging 61-65 gives us 9.37pts/week.  So we're looking at a replacement level value of right about 9pts/week.

So how is this helpful?  Obviously if we're starting a WR in our flex that's averaging 9pts/week we're either Da or just traded with John, but what this should actually help us do is refine our benches.  If the average WR that you can scoop up from waivers is averaging 9pts/week, or 4 catches for 50 yards per week (coughBRANDONMYERScough), it means that you should consider that value as your "11th bench player".  Unlike Seattle's "12th Man" this is a useful player.  When agonizing over whether to drop Nate Washington or Bilal Powell, look at the respective replacement level for their positions.  Nate Washington scored 9.1pts/week in 2012.  He is the definition of replacement level.  He is droppable, and is never worth paying for.  Instead of him, roster as your WR4 someone with a chance to score more than 9pts/week down the road.  There will always be a Nate Washington you can pick up if he busts, or if your WR3 goes down and you need a human band-aid.

Next to come: RBs!

Shoulder to Cry On: The Top Five Most One-sided Trades on Rocky Top

We've all been there.  The "Ruh roh" moment when the throw-in WR turns into TY Hilton, when the 4th string RB turns into Alfred Morris, or when that pick you finally add on becomes AJ Green.  You know ya done wrong, but it had looked good at the time!  How could you know??  Sometimes, people just can't predict what will happen after a trade.  Other times only YOU can't.  Here are the most one-sided trades in BORT history, representing both varieties.  Let our shame be our entertainment!

1) 2/19/13 

• Cordarrelle-icte Campaign gave up Hernandez, Aaron FA TE
• Midnight in the Gordon of Weeden gave up Spiller, C.J. BUF RB

We'll just get this one out of the way first because everyone knew it was coming at some point.  At the time Gordon of Weeden was looking at Brandon Myers at TE 4 RB1s in McCoy, Charles, CJ2K and Spiller.  A straight one-for-one deal was a gamble he could afford...until Aaron Hernandez was arrested for the murder of Odin Lloyd on June 26th.  As Spiller shed Fred Jackson's committee role like a cocoon and blossomed into a top-5 overall pick, Hernandez called former teammate Wes Welker for tips on accessorizing with Bronco Orange, or as he calls it now: "the only color these stupid jumpsuits come in".

2) 8/16/12

• Sir Jardarrelle Patterstokes gave up Peterson, Adrian MIN RB;Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB;Bryant, Dez DAL WR;White, Roddy ATL WR
• Buffalo Stampede gave up Foster, Arian HOU RB; Year 2012 Draft Pick 1.04

Or, as I like to call it: the best player in fantasy, an RB2/3, the second best WR in fantasy and another WR1 for an RB1 and a RD1 pick...that turned into Miles Austin and Le'veon Bell.  I've got to think that John would trade back in a heartbeat.  One heartbeat specifically, which is how long it takes Adrian Peterson to gain 47 yards.

3) 9/18/12

• DreamBoat Trash gave up Year 2014 Round 4 Draft Pick from DreamBoat Trash
• Murray'd to the Mob gave up Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF QB

This should live forever.  It should be emailed to Ryan Fitzpatrick every day (I hear he still uses hotmail) as a daily life affirmation.  One day, not that long ago, someone paid something to acquire him.  In ACTUAL football he wasn't even drafted until the 7th round.  This actually happened...TWICE!!!

• DreamBoat Trash gave up Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF QB
• Mushin no shin gave up Rivers, Philip SDC QB; Year 2014 Round 3 Draft Pick from Mushin no shin

Oh sweet applesauce.  The vagaries of youth.  I almost put the 3 trades of Antonio Gates in here but he could still conceivably be good.  Pickspatrick at his best has merely shown a lack of fear in the face of being terrible.

4) 7/19/11

• Dapper Dooleys gave up Britt, Kenny TEN WR;Harvin, Percy MIN WR
• What we talk about when we talk about fantasy football gave up Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR

I actually think that this one is pretty fair.  John, if you want to do this again I'd be happy to trade you Kenny Britt for Percy Harvin.  Just offer it up.  I'm waiting.

5) 8/11/11

• Dapper Dooleys gave up Greene, Shonn NYJ RB
• Fleaflickerama gave up Winslow, Kellen TBB TE; Year 2011 Draft Pick 1.01

Wait, what? The first overall pick?  One point zero one??  Plus a top-10 TE?  Was I in the league yet?  Was I in a coma for all of 2011?  WHEN WAS SHONN GREENE WORTH THIS?!

Bonus: 6) 7/27/10

• Wheezy's Head Band gave up Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR
• Appalachian Refugees gave up Hardesty, Montario CLE RB

Wait, what's a Montario Hardesty?  Is that a Spanish porn star?  It sounds like a Spanish porn star.

There are lessons here.  Specifically, that it's okay to trade with John.  But sometimes it's very not-okay.  And sometimes it's better than okay if you have a Tennesee player named "Carlos Danger".  But one thing is clear:  It's never, ever okay to trade for Ryan Fitzpatrick.  That's how you get lineup herpes, and that shit spreads faster than a Chip Kelly offense.