Current Position: 3rd, 81.0 points, 18.5 out of first
FAAB Budget: $100
Notable Drops: Travis Snider, Omar Infante, Mitch Moreland, Jake McGee, David Hernandez, Wilton Lopez
Notable Adds: Logan Morrison, Matt Joyce, Johnny Damon, Ian Stewart, Vincente Padilla, Aaron Crow, Mark Melancon
Trades: Johnathan Broxton for Matt Thornton, Jon Lester for CC Sabathia and Leo Nunez
Notes: My above average 4-6 section of my pitching staff has been excellent, carrying me to 17 wins with a 2.94 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over 238 innings. Chacin and Marcum have made me look smart, and with Morrow now off of the DL and showing no signs of rust I should be able to push my K/9IP even higher than the 8.1/9 that it sits now.
The batting has been disappointing to say the least. Despite extremely well balance R-RBI numbers I drafted several players who have experienced power outages, most notably Carlos Gonzalez. Hopefully his recent performance (6/13 in his last 3 games, with 2 HR) is the sign of a turn around. Aubrey Huff and Carlos Santana have been merciless batting average assassins instead of the .280-.290 bats I'd projected them for, and my overall average is a putrid .256, netting me only 1.5 points in that category. There's hope though, as almost all of my underachieving bats show little drop in their skill sets, and should help me make a run in HR and AVG in the remaining 3/4 of the season. The one adjustment I felt I needed to make, swapping out Lester for Sabathia and Nunez, I wrote about earlier and still feel very confident that it was a clear win for me. Sabathia has been his reliably excellent self in 4 starts since he was acquired, and Nunez has been a godsend to my bullpen, netting me almost 4 points by himself in saves. With either Padilla or Kuo taking over in LA and Melancon poised to do the same in Houston I could be fielding 4 closers (a significant advantage over the Yahoo average of 2.5 per team) within a week, and though I only have 4.5 points in saves currently, I'm only 7 saves back from adding 6 more points there.
Overall I'm happy to be in third this early into the season, and to have hit on many of my sleeper picks, but it's looking more and more like it will take well over 90 points to win the league, and I'm not sure if I can get many more than 90-92 points from my roster. The top two teams just have too large of an advantage with their stacked keepers and are already starting to pull away from the pack. Then again, my goals this season were a top-3 finish and to boost my kept 6, and with many top prospects yet to be called up I'm in very solid positioning to do both.
Thursday, May 5, 2011
Anatomy of a Veto
It's always been my opinion that the veto rule in fantasy should be treated with the same mixture of reverence and aversion as a nuclear bomb. The mere threat of its terrible power keeps people from committing actions that could possibly trigger its use. In a good league it's never needed. Managers know that if there's even a hint of collusion, or a trade so lopsided that it drastically effects the competitive balance of the league, their trade will be vetoed, and that's never a pretty situation. Feelings can get hurt, manager relationships damaged and even sometimes can lead to a manager leaving the league.
However, I recently ran into a trade in my 12 team 5x5 keeper roto that was unbalanced that the prospect of a veto was immediately raised. I wanted to take advantage of the situation to use it as an example of when I feel that a veto is necessary to protect the integrity of the league. If any of the involved parties read the article and want to respond in the comments, I welcome their counter-arguments or further justification. The trade is as follows:
[Name Redacted] Team 1 trades:
OF Jason Kubel
RP Aroldis Chapman
RP Jason Motte
C Matt Wieters
OF Jerry Sands
Team 2 trades:
OF Corey Hart
1B Kendrys Morales
RP Heath Bell
SP Matt Latos
3B Mark Reynolds
The justification offered up by Team 2 was that he was worried about Kendrys Morales' slow return from his broken leg as well as Matt Latos' shoulder, and was looking to get younger. In a keeper league it's often necessary for a manager to at least partially dump a season in order to re-tool for the next year, or to secure a particularly valuable keeper prospect (we keep 6 in this league, with no penalty). This sentiment is completely defensible. My issues, and why I feel that this trade should have been vetoed, are: 1) Team 2 is getting not only the lesser players by comparison, but also giving up the top individual player, 2) Team 2 has acknowledged that they are making the trade with no intent to compete this season, 3) Team 2 had the ability to pick all but one of the players being traded to them (Wieters, who was kept by Team 1) in the draft, and chose not to, indicating that this is an overreaction to a small sample size), 4) Team 2 has, even after this trade guts his roster, much better keeper options than any that he is receiving, and finally 5) Team 2 did not attempt to gain a better offer from any other manager in the league. This means that not only is Team 2 making a terrible trade for the short-term, he is also failing to improve his long-term ability to compete as well, and greatly boosting Team 1's chances to win in both of those scenarios. The other 10 teams, myself included, are now not only forced to deal with a greatly bolstered Team 1, but also had no ability to mitigate that advantage by engaging in a bidding war that could have eventually pushed the compensation value to a reasonable level.
It's easy to have the reaction that "Managers value players differently" when it comes to a trade that appears lopsided on paper, but there's more at stake when it's a keeper league. This trade has significantly reduced the level of competitiveness of the league by concentrating top talent within a smaller number of teams. In a league where one team already boasts Pujols, Cabrera, Kershaw, Wright, Choo and King Felix any increase in the level of talent density means that fewer and fewer teams have a chance to win each season, meaning that fewer and fewer teams will be invested. I certainly did not, and do not suspect any collusion in the deal above, but the fact that the team losing the deal has no chance of making up that gap in later seasons (Wieters, probably the biggest piece coming back, is blocked by Buster Posey at catcher on that team, unless he chooses to play a catcher at 1B) means that Team 1 essentially traded his bench for 5 legitimate top-100 fantasy players with no long-term harm. No one wants to play in the AL East where you're a 95 win team or you're out, and if you turn "wins" into "points" that's exactly what this type of trade will turn the league into.
However, I recently ran into a trade in my 12 team 5x5 keeper roto that was unbalanced that the prospect of a veto was immediately raised. I wanted to take advantage of the situation to use it as an example of when I feel that a veto is necessary to protect the integrity of the league. If any of the involved parties read the article and want to respond in the comments, I welcome their counter-arguments or further justification. The trade is as follows:
[Name Redacted] Team 1 trades:
OF Jason Kubel
RP Aroldis Chapman
RP Jason Motte
C Matt Wieters
OF Jerry Sands
Team 2 trades:
OF Corey Hart
1B Kendrys Morales
RP Heath Bell
SP Matt Latos
3B Mark Reynolds
The justification offered up by Team 2 was that he was worried about Kendrys Morales' slow return from his broken leg as well as Matt Latos' shoulder, and was looking to get younger. In a keeper league it's often necessary for a manager to at least partially dump a season in order to re-tool for the next year, or to secure a particularly valuable keeper prospect (we keep 6 in this league, with no penalty). This sentiment is completely defensible. My issues, and why I feel that this trade should have been vetoed, are: 1) Team 2 is getting not only the lesser players by comparison, but also giving up the top individual player, 2) Team 2 has acknowledged that they are making the trade with no intent to compete this season, 3) Team 2 had the ability to pick all but one of the players being traded to them (Wieters, who was kept by Team 1) in the draft, and chose not to, indicating that this is an overreaction to a small sample size), 4) Team 2 has, even after this trade guts his roster, much better keeper options than any that he is receiving, and finally 5) Team 2 did not attempt to gain a better offer from any other manager in the league. This means that not only is Team 2 making a terrible trade for the short-term, he is also failing to improve his long-term ability to compete as well, and greatly boosting Team 1's chances to win in both of those scenarios. The other 10 teams, myself included, are now not only forced to deal with a greatly bolstered Team 1, but also had no ability to mitigate that advantage by engaging in a bidding war that could have eventually pushed the compensation value to a reasonable level.
It's easy to have the reaction that "Managers value players differently" when it comes to a trade that appears lopsided on paper, but there's more at stake when it's a keeper league. This trade has significantly reduced the level of competitiveness of the league by concentrating top talent within a smaller number of teams. In a league where one team already boasts Pujols, Cabrera, Kershaw, Wright, Choo and King Felix any increase in the level of talent density means that fewer and fewer teams have a chance to win each season, meaning that fewer and fewer teams will be invested. I certainly did not, and do not suspect any collusion in the deal above, but the fact that the team losing the deal has no chance of making up that gap in later seasons (Wieters, probably the biggest piece coming back, is blocked by Buster Posey at catcher on that team, unless he chooses to play a catcher at 1B) means that Team 1 essentially traded his bench for 5 legitimate top-100 fantasy players with no long-term harm. No one wants to play in the AL East where you're a 95 win team or you're out, and if you turn "wins" into "points" that's exactly what this type of trade will turn the league into.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Anatomy of a Trade
Aside from an ill-thought out swap of Jonathan Broxton for Matt Thornton, the trade front has been quiet in both of my leagues. That ended Tuesday, when I received this trade request in my inbox: [Name omitted] proposes SP CC Sabathia and RP Matt Capps to Frozen in Cargonite for SP Jon Lester and RP Matt Thornton.
I am currently sitting in third place in this league, the 12 team roto keeper referenced in the draft recap column of March, and aside from some easily correctable batting average and home run deficiencies, the only weakness to my team is the lack of a saves-producing bullpen. I'd drafted Jake McGee and Drew Storen believing that they'd had the closer's job locked up for their respective teams, and handcuffed some of the more "volatile" closers with David Hernandez, Wilton Lopez and Hong Chi-Kuo. As of today this had netted me all of 4 saves, all from Broxton, who was traded for the healthier Thornton after Week 1.
Back to the trade. Capps holds very limited interest for me being as he's a temporary placeholder for Joe Nathan until his velocity issues are sorted out. A week or two's worth of saves isn't nearly enough to offset the long-term keeper edge that Lester holds over Sabathia by virtue of his age. This year, however, their value should be nearly identical according to ZIPS, with Lester having an edge in K/9IP and Sabathia an edge in WHIP and a greater volume of innings. I rarely keep pitchers, and because of the lack of HR power in my keepers was targeting a young stud like Eric Hosmer to fill my last keeper slot instead of Lester anyway, so essentially anything I can get on top of Sabathia is pure profit this season. With those thoughts in mind I wanted to counter-offer, but not too strongly that it would scare away the other team. Upon a second look he might very well notice the same things that I did, and back out. I offered Lester and Mark Melancon (the new likely handcuff for Brandon Llyon with Lopez hitting the DL) for Sabathia and Leo Nunez, who has shown improved swing-and-miss ability with the introduction of a new slider. An hour later, I'd come a great deal closer to fixing my saves problem, retained Thornton (who should win back the endgame role once he settles down) and hadn't weakened my starting rotation for 2011 at all. In fact, with Brandon Morrow soon to come off my DL and boost my K/9IP numbers, I could make the argument that Sabthia is a better fit for my team because his lower walk rate should help to bring down my whip better than Lester was.
There's always an initial negative reaction when a trade is proposed to you by another manager. It's easy to assume that they're doing it because they know something that you don't, and that you need to re-dictate the terms in order to feel like you're in control of the situation. That's something that can close you off to some nice deals though, and would have been the wrong reaction to embrace here. I took my time to research, vetted all the players involved from an injury standpoint, and made gains where my team was lacking. It helped greatly that my trading partner obviously put some thought into the offer and is not a close competitor in the standings. He's no doubt rubbing his hands thinking about being able to pair Lester up with his remaining ace Tommy Hanson for years to come, and when both managers leave the table feeling like they've gotten the better end of the deal it's a good one. Trade-rape only leads to no trading, while trade-fuck buddies leads to...CC Sabathia?
I am currently sitting in third place in this league, the 12 team roto keeper referenced in the draft recap column of March, and aside from some easily correctable batting average and home run deficiencies, the only weakness to my team is the lack of a saves-producing bullpen. I'd drafted Jake McGee and Drew Storen believing that they'd had the closer's job locked up for their respective teams, and handcuffed some of the more "volatile" closers with David Hernandez, Wilton Lopez and Hong Chi-Kuo. As of today this had netted me all of 4 saves, all from Broxton, who was traded for the healthier Thornton after Week 1.
Back to the trade. Capps holds very limited interest for me being as he's a temporary placeholder for Joe Nathan until his velocity issues are sorted out. A week or two's worth of saves isn't nearly enough to offset the long-term keeper edge that Lester holds over Sabathia by virtue of his age. This year, however, their value should be nearly identical according to ZIPS, with Lester having an edge in K/9IP and Sabathia an edge in WHIP and a greater volume of innings. I rarely keep pitchers, and because of the lack of HR power in my keepers was targeting a young stud like Eric Hosmer to fill my last keeper slot instead of Lester anyway, so essentially anything I can get on top of Sabathia is pure profit this season. With those thoughts in mind I wanted to counter-offer, but not too strongly that it would scare away the other team. Upon a second look he might very well notice the same things that I did, and back out. I offered Lester and Mark Melancon (the new likely handcuff for Brandon Llyon with Lopez hitting the DL) for Sabathia and Leo Nunez, who has shown improved swing-and-miss ability with the introduction of a new slider. An hour later, I'd come a great deal closer to fixing my saves problem, retained Thornton (who should win back the endgame role once he settles down) and hadn't weakened my starting rotation for 2011 at all. In fact, with Brandon Morrow soon to come off my DL and boost my K/9IP numbers, I could make the argument that Sabthia is a better fit for my team because his lower walk rate should help to bring down my whip better than Lester was.
There's always an initial negative reaction when a trade is proposed to you by another manager. It's easy to assume that they're doing it because they know something that you don't, and that you need to re-dictate the terms in order to feel like you're in control of the situation. That's something that can close you off to some nice deals though, and would have been the wrong reaction to embrace here. I took my time to research, vetted all the players involved from an injury standpoint, and made gains where my team was lacking. It helped greatly that my trading partner obviously put some thought into the offer and is not a close competitor in the standings. He's no doubt rubbing his hands thinking about being able to pair Lester up with his remaining ace Tommy Hanson for years to come, and when both managers leave the table feeling like they've gotten the better end of the deal it's a good one. Trade-rape only leads to no trading, while trade-fuck buddies leads to...CC Sabathia?
Saturday, April 2, 2011
Roto Keeper League Draft Recap
Fresh off my 12 team h2h league I had to jump right in to my uber-competitive rotisserie keeper league draft. This is the year 10 anniversary of the start and the first year that there's been only 1 new manager. It's always an interesting draft with this group because the research is impeccable, and every year there are a few managers who are trying some new strategy that throws everyone's drafts off. I wanted to ask each manager some general questions to process what went on this year. Keepers from last season are in parentheses, and the scoring is 5x5 mixed with 25 man rosters. The final draft results can be found here.
WAR Savage (V. Martinez, C. Crawford, J. Morneau, B. Upton, C. Hamels, G. Sizemore)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
FZeroes (B. Phillips, J. Lester, C. Gonzalez, C. Santana, R. Zimmerman)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?
I was a little worried about my power keeping no first baseman and only one OF, but my general rule about keepers is that if I have a player in the top 6 at their position, I keep them regardless of stats. I figure that I can always find stat fillers in the draft. I wanted to make sure to take a power bat with my first pick, and even with my second rounder if Paul Konerko was off the board. I was hoping that I could get one of my "Tier 1" starters to fall to my third round pick because there were 8 of those left starting the draft. It was a huge relief not to have to reach for infield help early as there were some guys that went early that I just hate.
I was a little worried about my power keeping no first baseman and only one OF, but my general rule about keepers is that if I have a player in the top 6 at their position, I keep them regardless of stats. I figure that I can always find stat fillers in the draft. I wanted to make sure to take a power bat with my first pick, and even with my second rounder if Paul Konerko was off the board. I was hoping that I could get one of my "Tier 1" starters to fall to my third round pick because there were 8 of those left starting the draft. It was a huge relief not to have to reach for infield help early as there were some guys that went early that I just hate.
In terms of executing my plan I got Hunter Pence second overall, who should help my power numbers without hurting my average, and was ecstatic to land OF Chris Young and SP Max Scherzer in rounds 2-3. I'd looked at Young with my first round pick and with such a tight innings cap (1250IP) Scherzer's K rate is huge. Unfortunately Konerko went in the middle of the tenth round and I whiffed on most of the mid-tier 1B also. I managed not to panic-draft anyone, but ended up with Aubrey Huff at 1B who isn't exactly a cornerstone. Late picks of Luke Scott and Mitch Moreland mean that if one of them pans out I can move Huff to a more appropriate Util slot, but if neither blossom I'll really need Travis Snider to hit close to 30HR to make up the gap.
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
No offense to the managers who draft this way, but I was shocked to see Bryce Harper even drafted. He won't play this season, and might not even play full-time next season. Obviously great young players are at a premium in dynasty leagues, but with only 6 keepers slots I feel it's almost impossible to win if you're wasting a 7th round pick on someone who won't help you this season. I was probably guilty of reaching a little bit on Aubrey Huff in the 15th Round. He's not a reach there by ADP, but there were comparable 1B players on the board near the 20th. I always think that the mid and late-tier closers go too early but at this point I think it's just how this league drafts. I'll need to change my draft strategy if I want any mid-tier guys, and that's just how it is.
In terms of steals there were so many pitchers that went late that I agonized over. I spent most of my prep time working on tiering and even by the twelfth Round there were pitchers left on my second and third tiers. I felt compelled to price enforce here, and ended up with a star-studded 5 man rotation plus a very solid sleeper in Edwin Jackson. However, there were still SO many pitchers available late. Ted Lilly in the 12th is crazy value, CJ Wilson in the 19th, Brett Myers in the 20th...the list goes on. People that prepared well and waited until the last second on pitching were still able to find value. Heck, James McDonald went in the frickin last round, and he could get 170Ks with a sub 4.00 ERA.
Dirtdogs (A. Gonzalez, I. Kinsler, A. Ethier, A. Rios, D. Price, J. Verlander)
This manager was unable to attend the draft, and drafted through pre-ranks.
Bad News Bodie (J. Votto, J. Upton, E. Longoria, J. Heyward, M. Stanton, P. Fielder)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
My basic strategy coming into this draft was to focus on pitching for the earlier rounds, since my 6 keepers were all position players. I know Starting Pitching is deep this year, but in order to try and compete in the pitching categories, I wanted to build a strong staff.
I was also concerned with the lack of speed my 6 keepers would be giving me this year, so I wanted to make sure I got some speedsters up the middle. My 3 OF spots were already taken with my keepers and I had no utility spot either. I may have reached a bit for Castro and Figgins, but I needed steals at those positions and I was worried about the talent pool at those two positions the further you go.
I feel like I followed my strategy for the most part. I filled up my gaps up the middle early on. I waited too long on a few starting pitchers that I was targeting, but I am confident with the starting pitchers I drafted.
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
I was very happy with getting Carpenter with the 128th pick. His ADP on ESPN was around 49, so I think I got great value there. I also liked my round 23 pick of James Shields. I think he got unlucky last year and even though he’s pitching in the AL East, he’ll have a bounce back year and be close to 200 K’s again this year.
I thought Polish Sausages’ pick of Adam Jones in the 17th round was really good. The Fzeros also had a nice pick in the last round with Mitch Moreland. I like him a lot this year.
I think my worst pick was my round 22 pick where I drafted Ryan Theriot. I should’ve gone for either Wilton Lopez or David Hernandez to have another potential closer in my bullpen. I also wasn’t real happy having to draft Chone Figgins in the 9th round. I think his ADP is a full two rounds after that. But given my team, speed was crucial.
I’m always one for drafting stud prospects early on, even if they aren’t supposed to get called up for a few months. But I think the Bryce Harper pick in round 7 was even too early for me. I think eventually he’ll be a great ballplayer, but I think it’s at least a full year away, if not two.
Bonus Question: How influenced were your picks by the keeper format? I.E. were you drafting to win this season or more drafting a core that can be competitive for 3-4 seasons?
I would say this year my picks were not as influenced (as they usually are) by the keeper format. Obviously I drafted Starlin Castro WAY before his ADP, because I like him for the long haul at a scarce position. So that particular pick was influenced by the keeper format. However, the rest of my draft was solely based on competing this year.
Sullys (J. Mauer, R. Howard, N. Cruz, S. Strassburg, I. Suzuki, D. Jeter)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?
I wanted to focus on two good SP’s, and then the best values, regardless of position. I also tend to
grab closers from bad teams, as I can get them a round or two later once the closer run starts. I am
generally satisfied with the draft, although my team speed needs some help.
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
I wanted to focus on two good SP’s, and then the best values, regardless of position. I also tend to
grab closers from bad teams, as I can get them a round or two later once the closer run starts. I am
generally satisfied with the draft, although my team speed needs some help.
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
Like last year, I’ll break them down in round groups – my player first, the league second.
Rounds 7-10 best: Dan Haren – after Greinke, Hanson and Gallardo were taken, I felt good
grabbing him in Round 8
Drew Stubbs – good speed & power; avg should improve
Rounds 7-10 worst: Chad Billingsley – better position players available, and SP pretty deep this year
Starlin Castro – stats seem “Polanco-like” to me; great avg, little power
& rbi, doesn’t run a lot…maybe batting 2nd this year will help
Rounds 11-15 best: Joe Nathan – felt fortunate to get on the closer run before it got out of hand in
rd 11; when healthy, he’s up there with Soria & B Wilson
Rounds 11-15 worst:
Brian Roberts – if healthy, he’ll post #’s that put him in top 5 2B’s
Casey McGehee – rbi inflated last yr due to Fielder’s poor year; can’t
count on that again. This is Jorge Cantu in a Brewer uniform.
Francisco Cordero – if you want to start a closer panic, it would be
better to pick a guy who won’t be out of a job by Memorial Day; Street,
Axford, even C Perez were safer options.
Rounds 16-20 best: (tie) Chipper Jones – sure, he’s never healthy, but I wanted my favorite player
on my fantasy team before he retires. Plus, look at the SLG pct this
spring! I’ll take that gamble in round 20.
(tie) Michael Pineda – if he’s for real, my SP keepers of him & Strasburg next year could recall
the Sully glory days of Pedro & Big Unit
Manny Ramirez – aging player, but still fantasy relevant
Rounds 16-20 worst: Ian Kennedy – Dexter Fowler could have been had, & I needed speed
Erik Bedard – I hate Erik Bedard. Not sure why anymore, but I still hate
Erik Bedard. We all have players like that. Players we hate. I hate Erik
Bedard. Typing this message makes me hate him even more.
Rounds 21-25 best: Jorge Posada – good insurance against Mauer’s knee. Moving to DH should get
him more AB’s
Rounds 21-25 worst: Desmond Jennings – nice guy to stash away; will contribute speed &
maybe more soon
Hideki Matsui – unlike Manny, this is an aging player who is NOT fantasy
relevant
Jason Varitek – see note on Matsui, Hideki, above. The next pick (Ruiz)
is a better option
How influenced were your picks by the keeper format?
It should be obvious that my first pick (Bryce Harper) was completely influenced by the keeper
format. Finishing in 11th last year (and even more disturbing, my trend of finishes since ’07), I
thought it was a gamble worth taking. My keepers aren’t getting any younger (Ichiro, Jeter), so
an infusion of youth (Strasburg, Harper, maybe even Pineda) is desperately needed.
Realistically, I would be happy with a top half finish this year, with an eye for real competition in
2012. I’m also interested in reading my draft comments at the all-star break to see how full of
crap I am.
Rounds 7-10 best: Dan Haren – after Greinke, Hanson and Gallardo were taken, I felt good
grabbing him in Round 8
Drew Stubbs – good speed & power; avg should improve
Rounds 7-10 worst: Chad Billingsley – better position players available, and SP pretty deep this year
Starlin Castro – stats seem “Polanco-like” to me; great avg, little power
& rbi, doesn’t run a lot…maybe batting 2nd this year will help
Rounds 11-15 best: Joe Nathan – felt fortunate to get on the closer run before it got out of hand in
rd 11; when healthy, he’s up there with Soria & B Wilson
Rounds 11-15 worst:
Brian Roberts – if healthy, he’ll post #’s that put him in top 5 2B’s
Casey McGehee – rbi inflated last yr due to Fielder’s poor year; can’t
count on that again. This is Jorge Cantu in a Brewer uniform.
Francisco Cordero – if you want to start a closer panic, it would be
better to pick a guy who won’t be out of a job by Memorial Day; Street,
Axford, even C Perez were safer options.
Rounds 16-20 best: (tie) Chipper Jones – sure, he’s never healthy, but I wanted my favorite player
on my fantasy team before he retires. Plus, look at the SLG pct this
spring! I’ll take that gamble in round 20.
(tie) Michael Pineda – if he’s for real, my SP keepers of him & Strasburg next year could recall
the Sully glory days of Pedro & Big Unit
Manny Ramirez – aging player, but still fantasy relevant
Rounds 16-20 worst: Ian Kennedy – Dexter Fowler could have been had, & I needed speed
Erik Bedard – I hate Erik Bedard. Not sure why anymore, but I still hate
Erik Bedard. We all have players like that. Players we hate. I hate Erik
Bedard. Typing this message makes me hate him even more.
Rounds 21-25 best: Jorge Posada – good insurance against Mauer’s knee. Moving to DH should get
him more AB’s
Rounds 21-25 worst: Desmond Jennings – nice guy to stash away; will contribute speed &
maybe more soon
Hideki Matsui – unlike Manny, this is an aging player who is NOT fantasy
relevant
Jason Varitek – see note on Matsui, Hideki, above. The next pick (Ruiz)
is a better option
How influenced were your picks by the keeper format?
It should be obvious that my first pick (Bryce Harper) was completely influenced by the keeper
format. Finishing in 11th last year (and even more disturbing, my trend of finishes since ’07), I
thought it was a gamble worth taking. My keepers aren’t getting any younger (Ichiro, Jeter), so
an infusion of youth (Strasburg, Harper, maybe even Pineda) is desperately needed.
Realistically, I would be happy with a top half finish this year, with an eye for real competition in
2012. I’m also interested in reading my draft comments at the all-star break to see how full of
crap I am.
The Guinypigs (B. Posey, D. Uggla, K. Morales, M. Latos, J. Papelbon, J. Ellsbury)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
Polish Sausages (A. Rodriguez, T. Tulowitzki, M. Teixiera, C. Utley, C. Sabathia, B. McCann)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?
Now in my 3rd year in this league, I was happy with the core keepers I was starting with. Every
position around the diamond was covered, so my focus was more on grabbing outfielders and
pitching. Early I wanted to grab 2 starters remaining in my upper tier, then look at OF with speed,
then closers. My picks reflected that strategy pretty well.
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
Now in my 3rd year in this league, I was happy with the core keepers I was starting with. Every
position around the diamond was covered, so my focus was more on grabbing outfielders and
pitching. Early I wanted to grab 2 starters remaining in my upper tier, then look at OF with speed,
then closers. My picks reflected that strategy pretty well.
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
Like last year, I’ll break them down in round groups – my player first, the league second.
Rounds 7-10 best: Tommy Hanson – he was my top rated SP after all the keepers were set
Pablo Sandoval – it looks like has turned into a better Panda circa 2009
Rounds 7-10 worst: Brett Gardner – a bit of a reach, especially if he hits 9th regularly
Kelly Johnson – it seemed early to grab a 2B with his expected numbers
Rounds 11-15 best: Bobby Abreu – solid performer with good power and speed potential
Delmon Young – has potential for elite numbers as he settles in
Rounds 11-15 worst: Leo Nunez – 13th round too early to go after a below-average closer
Kurt Suzuki – next C taken was 49 picks later
Rounds 16-20 best: Adam Jones – expecting a bounce-back year like Rios in 2010
David Ortiz – he should see even better pitches to hit in that lineup
Rounds 16-20 worst: Alfonso Soriano – I don’t have much confidence that he will do anything
Travis Wood – a draft deep in SP had better options at that point
Rounds 21-25 best: Marlon Byrd – having a great spring and hitting in the middle of order
Carlos Gomez – real nice speed option late in the draft
Rounds 21-25 worst: Johan Santana – he may not even pitch; there were better options
Omar Infante – pretty plain numbers; at least he can play everywhere
Bonus Question: How influenced were your picks by the keeper format ?
In previous drafts, one of my big goals was to improve the quality of my core keepers for the
following year. In 2011, I had more of a focus on doing well in the current year. Having said
that, Hanson is only 24 and I would have gone hard after Bryce Harper if he were available.
In this league, once you lock up a superstar it provides a real advantage. Look at Regulators with
Pujols/Cabrera or Dumplings with Hanley/Braun. While their teams each year have been solid
throughout, the numbers their multiple superstars produce are tough to beat.
In conclusion, I was fairly pleased with most of my selections, and didn’t appear to have a “Nate
McClouth” moment like last year.
Rounds 7-10 best: Tommy Hanson – he was my top rated SP after all the keepers were set
Pablo Sandoval – it looks like has turned into a better Panda circa 2009
Rounds 7-10 worst: Brett Gardner – a bit of a reach, especially if he hits 9th regularly
Kelly Johnson – it seemed early to grab a 2B with his expected numbers
Rounds 11-15 best: Bobby Abreu – solid performer with good power and speed potential
Delmon Young – has potential for elite numbers as he settles in
Rounds 11-15 worst: Leo Nunez – 13th round too early to go after a below-average closer
Kurt Suzuki – next C taken was 49 picks later
Rounds 16-20 best: Adam Jones – expecting a bounce-back year like Rios in 2010
David Ortiz – he should see even better pitches to hit in that lineup
Rounds 16-20 worst: Alfonso Soriano – I don’t have much confidence that he will do anything
Travis Wood – a draft deep in SP had better options at that point
Rounds 21-25 best: Marlon Byrd – having a great spring and hitting in the middle of order
Carlos Gomez – real nice speed option late in the draft
Rounds 21-25 worst: Johan Santana – he may not even pitch; there were better options
Omar Infante – pretty plain numbers; at least he can play everywhere
Bonus Question: How influenced were your picks by the keeper format ?
In previous drafts, one of my big goals was to improve the quality of my core keepers for the
following year. In 2011, I had more of a focus on doing well in the current year. Having said
that, Hanson is only 24 and I would have gone hard after Bryce Harper if he were available.
In this league, once you lock up a superstar it provides a real advantage. Look at Regulators with
Pujols/Cabrera or Dumplings with Hanley/Braun. While their teams each year have been solid
throughout, the numbers their multiple superstars produce are tough to beat.
In conclusion, I was fairly pleased with most of my selections, and didn’t appear to have a “Nate
McClouth” moment like last year.
Flushing Johns (J. Johnson, B. Wilson, P. Alvarez, A. Mccutchen, A. Dunn, J. Pierre)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?
My draft strategy was driven mostly by the weak group of players I had available as keepers. My team is missing anything near a player who could be considered a superstar. In fact, my top 3 keepers (McCutchen, Dunn and Josh Johnson) have been going with an ADP in the 4th round, with my other 3 keepers even lower. So my keeper strategy was to try to start with a good foundation in every stat category (thus keeping Wilson for Saves and Pierre for steals).
In the draft, I wanted to get some HR players... grab a 2nd decent closer quickly (I know, WAIT on closers... but they have trade value as well)... concentrate on 3 or 4 high strikeout SP's... get 2 or 3 guys who could develop into better keepers going forward.
How did I do? First, there wasn't a lot of power after the keepers came off the board, but I got Johnson at 2B and Swisher in the OF who should help. I got Soria in round 2 to kick off the first closer run, giving me 2 of the top 4 or so closers (and some mid-season trade bait I hope). I also ended up with a few closers-in-waiting. I'm comfortable with my SP's and there are always some available on the waiver wire. I wish I would have gotten a couple more young players to develop into keepers, but I'm looking for Stubbs to be a 25 / 25 or better player, and holding my breath with Ackley and the Kila-monster.
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
Steal of the draft? Michael Morse in round 23 (I wanted him and lost track along the way). I'm not sure I saw any obvious reaches.
Tuscaloosa Dumplings (H. Ramirez, R. Braun, M. Kemp, K. Youkilis, C. Lee, R. Weekes)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
My basic strategy going into the draft this year was quite a bit different than past years for a few reasons. This was the first year I did some extensive research beforehand by religiously checking several sites and doing some of my own cross-referenced research. I was trying to make sure that I would draft a balance team all around, because in past years I tend to be very good in a few select categories, then awful at others. In order to keep track of how balance my team was as I drafted, I set up a spreadsheet that would help me more easily see what stats I had, and what type of players I would need to help in that stats i was neglecting. The only real problem with my plan was that the draft at times would go so fast I had trouble keeping up with my spreadsheet, but it worked pretty well overall.
Looking back at the draft, I feel my plan was executed pretty successfully but could have been better. There was a lot of players that i wanted, but didn't want to reach too far for, then missed out on them because of it. While there are always headaches, I feel i drafted a pretty balanced team (especially on offence).
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
I feel my best pick overall was Vlad Guerrero in Round 15, or Tim Hudson in Round 17. Both are established veterans, getting a little bit on the old side, but should provide some solid stats for that late in the draft. Veterans seem to get heavily discounted in this league it seems.
My worst pick in the draft was Matt Thornton in Round 11. Even though the closers were flying off the board, I don't feel too confident that Thornton will keep his job all year long, and picking him in Round 11 was a little early.
The best overall pick in the draft this year was Geovani Soto in Round 10 by the Regulators. With all the good catchers being kept, Soto was really the only decent one left before the drop off and he got to pick him in Round 10.
My opinion of the worst overall pick this year was Bryce Harper in Round 7 (Sorry Sully's). He has all the potential in the world, but picking someone who most likely won't see the Majors this year and possibly a lot of next year was far too early, though i do understand in a way. If he was picked later on in the draft it would have made more sense to me.
Bonus Question: How influenced were your picks by the keeper format? I.E. were you drafting to win this season or more drafting a core that can be competitive for 3-4 seasons?
My team has been quite competitive over the past few years so I was definitely drafting to win this year. I have a solid core of young talent that I'm definitely willing ot work with and change if needs be, but I feel my team can definitely be competitive again this year.
The Schwartz (R. Halladay, U. Jimenez, T. Lincecum, R. Cano, J. Bautista, B. Butler)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
Emerson Tigers (J. Hamilton, M. Holliday, E. Andrus, D. Pedroia, M. Wieters, A. Beltre)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
Regulators (A. Pujols, M. Cabrera, D. Wright, S. Choo, F. Hernandez, C. Kershaw)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?
My draft didn't go as planned. I had a few strategies, but only one panned out, and that was to have above average SP. The prevailing logic this spring has been that SP is very deep and you should wait to grab your aces. With two aces already on
my staff, I decided to go against the grain and grab my 3rd SP early to try to get a leg up in pitching. It may work, or Liriano could get injured and I'm back where I started.
The rest of the draft was a crapshoot. I only got one closer with a secure job. My middle infield is shaky. There were a few sleepers that I wanted to roster, but I missed the boat on nearly all of them because I waited too long and because of my
draft position at the end of the line . Also, I think that that most of you guys were targeting the same "sleepers" as I was. So I basically ended up taking alot of guys that were ignored or coming off injury in recent years. The only guy I
really jumped for was Tabata, who I felt I would not get otherwise because of our resident Pirate fan in the league.
But the truth is that all in all, I had a great time on draft night. It's alot of fun to build a roster, even if it doesn't consist of the players that you wanted. I bet that the draft has about a 25% impact on your finish. 5-10% is trading
(variable depending on individual manager tendencies), and probably 65-70% of your destiny is determined by your overall manager activity (or inactivity), which mainly consists of consistent roster upkeep and tweaking, watching closer (and other
position) battles, keeping an eye on good prospects and callups, grabbing hot hitters and sleeper SP's before someone else gets to them. The draft is just a small (but important) part of your season.
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
My draft didn't go as planned. I had a few strategies, but only one panned out, and that was to have above average SP. The prevailing logic this spring has been that SP is very deep and you should wait to grab your aces. With two aces already on
my staff, I decided to go against the grain and grab my 3rd SP early to try to get a leg up in pitching. It may work, or Liriano could get injured and I'm back where I started.
The rest of the draft was a crapshoot. I only got one closer with a secure job. My middle infield is shaky. There were a few sleepers that I wanted to roster, but I missed the boat on nearly all of them because I waited too long and because of my
draft position at the end of the line . Also, I think that that most of you guys were targeting the same "sleepers" as I was. So I basically ended up taking alot of guys that were ignored or coming off injury in recent years. The only guy I
really jumped for was Tabata, who I felt I would not get otherwise because of our resident Pirate fan in the league.
But the truth is that all in all, I had a great time on draft night. It's alot of fun to build a roster, even if it doesn't consist of the players that you wanted. I bet that the draft has about a 25% impact on your finish. 5-10% is trading
(variable depending on individual manager tendencies), and probably 65-70% of your destiny is determined by your overall manager activity (or inactivity), which mainly consists of consistent roster upkeep and tweaking, watching closer (and other
position) battles, keeping an eye on good prospects and callups, grabbing hot hitters and sleeper SP's before someone else gets to them. The draft is just a small (but important) part of your season.
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
The only pick of mine that I liked was Soto in the 10th. I paired him with Iannetta in the 24th, so I should have decent production from that position if all goes as planned.
The best pick of the draft was, by far, Adam Jones in the 17th. Peter Bourjos in the 21st was also a good snag. But the Jones pick was terrific.
My bad picks were many, some of which were: Furcal in the 14th, Aardsma in the 16th and Farnsworth in the 23rd
Was Bryce Harper the worst pick of the draft? Call me in 2015.
Bonus Question: Was your draft influenced at all by the keeper format? Did you draft to build a competitive team for the near future or did you draft to compete mainly this year?
The fact that it is a keeper doesn't really change my draft strategy. I'm lucky enough to have Cabrera and Pujols on the same team, so it's alot harder for me to screw up my team with a bad draft, although I tried my best this year.
All in all it seemed as though there was a bit more strategic thinking going on this season than in season's past. Additionally, there were only a small handful of moves made once players cleared waivers, which is usually an indication that people were pleased with their teams, a far cry from last season. Time will tell.
The best pick of the draft was, by far, Adam Jones in the 17th. Peter Bourjos in the 21st was also a good snag. But the Jones pick was terrific.
My bad picks were many, some of which were: Furcal in the 14th, Aardsma in the 16th and Farnsworth in the 23rd
Was Bryce Harper the worst pick of the draft? Call me in 2015.
Bonus Question: Was your draft influenced at all by the keeper format? Did you draft to build a competitive team for the near future or did you draft to compete mainly this year?
The fact that it is a keeper doesn't really change my draft strategy. I'm lucky enough to have Cabrera and Pujols on the same team, so it's alot harder for me to screw up my team with a bad draft, although I tried my best this year.
All in all it seemed as though there was a bit more strategic thinking going on this season than in season's past. Additionally, there were only a small handful of moves made once players cleared waivers, which is usually an indication that people were pleased with their teams, a far cry from last season. Time will tell.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Roto Draft Aftermatch: Teamcentric
Because I didn't get to fully address my rotisserie mock in the general recap (ed. note: will be up before Friday, still waiting on responses from 5 managers), I wanted to revisit my strategy in a little more detail as a review of the process, and determine how it needs to be tweaked or added to for next season. I started with six keepers: Brandon Phillips, Jon Lester, Carlos Santana, Carlos Gonzalez, Jose Reyes and Ryan Zimmerman. Except for Cargo and Zim, there was a decided lack of "traditional" power and some serious RBI concerns. I say "traditional" power because CSantana and Phillips will provide plus power at their positions, but won't reach the "plus power" level of say, an OF or 1B. Scanning the available player list there were only two 1B with clear 30HR potential in Carlos Pena and Paul Konerko. Pena would complete a Carlos trifecta but I already had AVG concerns with Santana and Phillips, and I wanted to maintain a team batting average in the vicinity of .285. Konerko, despite having a renaissance year in 2011, was not worth a 7th round pick over some of the other available bats. So, OF was a clear choice, with AVG/HR/RBI as a priority. Then I could add a second SP (more valuable in this league due to a low 1250 innings cap) and either Konerko or a third OF if the available players at that position still outclassed my projection for Konerko (.275-85-30-85-0). Here's what I came up with as my post-draft roster, with the round selected next to the player:
C Carlos Santana, kept
1B Aubrey Huff, Round 15
2B Brandon Phillips, kept
SS Jose Reyes, kept
3B Ryan Zimmerman, kept
OF1 Carlos Gonzalez, kept
OF2 Hunter Pence, Round 7
OF3 Chris Young, Round 8
Util Travis Snider, Round 18
Bench Wil Venable, Round 19
Bench Luke Scott, Round 20
Bench Mitch Moreland, Round 25
Bench Omar Infante, Round 24
SP1 Jon Lester, kept
SP2 Max Scherzer, Round 9
RP1 Jonathan Broxton, Round 11
RP2 Jake Mcgee, Round 16
Bench Shaun Marcum, Round 10
Bench Brandon Morrow, Round 12
Bench Jhoulys Chacin, Round 14
Bench Edwin Jackson, Round 21
Bench David Hernandez, Round 23
Bench Hong Chi-Kuo, Round 17
Bench Wilton Lopez, Round, 22
Bench Drew Storen, Round 13
This squad is projected to gain 74 points and place third by using last years statistics, and considering that my team last year placed 8th out of 12 that would be a significant improvement. Additionally, my Util, SS, C and RP slot should be vastly improved compared to those projections as the 74 points expects only 26 saves total from my 3 closers, and is using under 200ABs for Carlos Santana. I'm expecting at least 85 points, and if one or more out of Snider, Moreland, Scott or Venable takes the next step my Util slot could net me an extra 2-3 points easily. My rotation has some health concerns with Morrow, Marcum and Scherzer all having missed time due to injuries in the last 2 years, but if healthy will maximize my Ks and still net a decent win total. Hopefully Marcum and Lester can offset Morrow's whip if it's more like 1.40 than the 1.25 he put up in his last 100 innings of 2010. I am depending a little on my bullpen to produce at least one more closer, but if I finish in the middle of the pack I'll be more than happy. My infield and outfield is rock solid, and that was the trade-off I was willing to make according to my mock. The Aubrey Huff selection in Round 15 was my only consolation to positional scarcity, and if he puts up 80-25-80 with a respectable average I'm fine. If Huff tanks I'll have to hope Moreland or Scott (top 10 HR/FB% last season, in a much better park) can fill my 1B slot.
All in all I'm very pleased with the tiering exercises and mocking I did as preparation. I was really only thrown a few times early in the draft where some teams really reached for pet players, but I managed not to overspend on pitching late, and nabbed almost all of my sleepers for rounds 20-25. The few hiccups that I did encounter had more to do with peculiarities of the league, and the increase in relative value that closers gain when you have a low innings cap and deep benches. I would probably make a note of that for next season, but I'm not sure that I could ever see myself taking Neftali Felix over Chris Carpenter. 74 points with a very solid chance to add 10 more is a successful draft, and thanks to my Kardashian work I have a very healthy list of players that I can sub in and out as team weaknesses become apparent.
C Carlos Santana, kept
1B Aubrey Huff, Round 15
2B Brandon Phillips, kept
SS Jose Reyes, kept
3B Ryan Zimmerman, kept
OF1 Carlos Gonzalez, kept
OF2 Hunter Pence, Round 7
OF3 Chris Young, Round 8
Util Travis Snider, Round 18
Bench Wil Venable, Round 19
Bench Luke Scott, Round 20
Bench Mitch Moreland, Round 25
Bench Omar Infante, Round 24
SP1 Jon Lester, kept
SP2 Max Scherzer, Round 9
RP1 Jonathan Broxton, Round 11
RP2 Jake Mcgee, Round 16
Bench Shaun Marcum, Round 10
Bench Brandon Morrow, Round 12
Bench Jhoulys Chacin, Round 14
Bench Edwin Jackson, Round 21
Bench David Hernandez, Round 23
Bench Hong Chi-Kuo, Round 17
Bench Wilton Lopez, Round, 22
Bench Drew Storen, Round 13
This squad is projected to gain 74 points and place third by using last years statistics, and considering that my team last year placed 8th out of 12 that would be a significant improvement. Additionally, my Util, SS, C and RP slot should be vastly improved compared to those projections as the 74 points expects only 26 saves total from my 3 closers, and is using under 200ABs for Carlos Santana. I'm expecting at least 85 points, and if one or more out of Snider, Moreland, Scott or Venable takes the next step my Util slot could net me an extra 2-3 points easily. My rotation has some health concerns with Morrow, Marcum and Scherzer all having missed time due to injuries in the last 2 years, but if healthy will maximize my Ks and still net a decent win total. Hopefully Marcum and Lester can offset Morrow's whip if it's more like 1.40 than the 1.25 he put up in his last 100 innings of 2010. I am depending a little on my bullpen to produce at least one more closer, but if I finish in the middle of the pack I'll be more than happy. My infield and outfield is rock solid, and that was the trade-off I was willing to make according to my mock. The Aubrey Huff selection in Round 15 was my only consolation to positional scarcity, and if he puts up 80-25-80 with a respectable average I'm fine. If Huff tanks I'll have to hope Moreland or Scott (top 10 HR/FB% last season, in a much better park) can fill my 1B slot.
All in all I'm very pleased with the tiering exercises and mocking I did as preparation. I was really only thrown a few times early in the draft where some teams really reached for pet players, but I managed not to overspend on pitching late, and nabbed almost all of my sleepers for rounds 20-25. The few hiccups that I did encounter had more to do with peculiarities of the league, and the increase in relative value that closers gain when you have a low innings cap and deep benches. I would probably make a note of that for next season, but I'm not sure that I could ever see myself taking Neftali Felix over Chris Carpenter. 74 points with a very solid chance to add 10 more is a successful draft, and thanks to my Kardashian work I have a very healthy list of players that I can sub in and out as team weaknesses become apparent.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Mocking your draft, Part Two
Taking off from where we started yesterday we're ready to run through our mock keeper league draft. I like to take into account 4 factors when I do this, namely:
1) What names will be in my opponent's faces? I.E. Who are the highest ranked players available at the pick? Even if my opponent managers are targeting say, Adam Jones, they'll likely be inclined to pass him up if he's the 12th best available OF. The natural response is to assume that he'll remain available for another round.
2) What are the team needs of each team? Using my cheat sheet from Part One I've identified the major deficiency of each team by category and position. This factor needs to be taken with a grain of salt though, as some statistics (steals) and positions (catcher, starting pitcher) naturally gravitate towards later rounds of a draft. In most advanced leagues, you'll probably see closers take a back seat as well.
3) What are each manager's preferred styles of play? In any keeper league you need to make it priority #1 to know your competitors. Know their player preferences, know their drafting tendencies, know if they're a homer, know what their favorite color is, etc. Knowing if someone is a Sox fan could mean the difference between them picking Jacoby Ellsbury over Ichiro or BJ Upton as an early speed option. Knowing if someone reads Fangraphs or not could mean a 4 round difference in when Brett Anderson is drafted. Does a manager favor rookies or veterans? FIP or ERA? Etc, etc. It's not always information you'll have, but when you have it you'll find that you can always use it to fine-tune your strategies.
4) Keeper positional scarcity. Were 11 first basemen kept in a 12 team league? Were all of the power options at second base kept? A smart owner will know that if there were 6 shortstops kept, but there are 8 good shortstops, then they should reach for one of the two good remaining players at that position. That's fine. What isn't fine is reaching for a shortstop if there were 7 good remaining players. A panicky owner will do that, and if you can predict who that is, and when, you can profit from it. Look at what positions were kept compared to your positional tiers. Now apply that to each team.
Okay, now that you've done your homework, run through 3-4 rounds of picks. Take into account all four factors I listed above and try to combine them to predict the picks. When will the closer run happen? You'll be able to answer that if you find the round when enough teams have addressed their major problems and are confident enough to start picking luxury players. If you're trying to stash Adam Jones as a sleeper in the 14th Round but there are 4 teams picking ahead of you who only have one or two outfielders picked so far, you're probably not going to get him. Take that information and take the Pac-Man in the 13th, or find those 4 team's managers and talk down your boy, or talk up some other outfielders that would also make sense at that position. With your mock you have an invaluable weapon. You can use the information that backs up the picks to either make that mock a reality, or to manipulate the league into shifting the probability away from it happening. This is your chance to re-write history.
Thoughts? Was this helpful? I'm interested to hear your comments.
1) What names will be in my opponent's faces? I.E. Who are the highest ranked players available at the pick? Even if my opponent managers are targeting say, Adam Jones, they'll likely be inclined to pass him up if he's the 12th best available OF. The natural response is to assume that he'll remain available for another round.
2) What are the team needs of each team? Using my cheat sheet from Part One I've identified the major deficiency of each team by category and position. This factor needs to be taken with a grain of salt though, as some statistics (steals) and positions (catcher, starting pitcher) naturally gravitate towards later rounds of a draft. In most advanced leagues, you'll probably see closers take a back seat as well.
3) What are each manager's preferred styles of play? In any keeper league you need to make it priority #1 to know your competitors. Know their player preferences, know their drafting tendencies, know if they're a homer, know what their favorite color is, etc. Knowing if someone is a Sox fan could mean the difference between them picking Jacoby Ellsbury over Ichiro or BJ Upton as an early speed option. Knowing if someone reads Fangraphs or not could mean a 4 round difference in when Brett Anderson is drafted. Does a manager favor rookies or veterans? FIP or ERA? Etc, etc. It's not always information you'll have, but when you have it you'll find that you can always use it to fine-tune your strategies.
4) Keeper positional scarcity. Were 11 first basemen kept in a 12 team league? Were all of the power options at second base kept? A smart owner will know that if there were 6 shortstops kept, but there are 8 good shortstops, then they should reach for one of the two good remaining players at that position. That's fine. What isn't fine is reaching for a shortstop if there were 7 good remaining players. A panicky owner will do that, and if you can predict who that is, and when, you can profit from it. Look at what positions were kept compared to your positional tiers. Now apply that to each team.
Okay, now that you've done your homework, run through 3-4 rounds of picks. Take into account all four factors I listed above and try to combine them to predict the picks. When will the closer run happen? You'll be able to answer that if you find the round when enough teams have addressed their major problems and are confident enough to start picking luxury players. If you're trying to stash Adam Jones as a sleeper in the 14th Round but there are 4 teams picking ahead of you who only have one or two outfielders picked so far, you're probably not going to get him. Take that information and take the Pac-Man in the 13th, or find those 4 team's managers and talk down your boy, or talk up some other outfielders that would also make sense at that position. With your mock you have an invaluable weapon. You can use the information that backs up the picks to either make that mock a reality, or to manipulate the league into shifting the probability away from it happening. This is your chance to re-write history.
Thoughts? Was this helpful? I'm interested to hear your comments.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Mocking your draft, Part One
One of the most beneficial steps in my draft preparation the last few seasons has been to do a 3-4 round mock draft of my league. Only 3-4 rounds because after that it's mere guesswork that can cause over thinking, and also because after Round 10 (when the 6 keepers are taken into consideration) I generally have a good idea of how the rest of the draft will progress. I'll try and keep the article as general as possible, but I might use some specific examples to help convey my point.
The first thing that I like to do is draw up a roster for every team in the league as it would look under the current settings, filling in keepers in where I believe they'll be played by my opponent managers. This not only gives me an idea of what type of players my opponents will be targeting in terms of statistics, but also by position. To facilitate that, I like to overlay a grid on the players and list the 5x5 categories with either "+" or "++" in each category if the player is an above average or elite contributor in that category, a blank if they're league average, and a "-" if they're well below league average. For example, Ichiro is "++" in AVG, "+" in SB, but blank in Runs and "-" in Home Runs and RBIs. This allows me to to assess a team's strength and weaknesses with a quick glance, something that's invaluable during the draft when I'm on the clock.
Once I've done this with each team I put the draft order down on another page and next to each team write down the manager's name and any obvious team weaknesses/deficiencies. The manager's name is important because it allows me to use any knowledge I've obtained about that manager to influence the mock. The weakness list is the real key, however, and sets me up for the next step. Here's an example of what I had at this point so far for one team, whose manager shall remain nameless. The included players are the team's keepers.
The first thing that I like to do is draw up a roster for every team in the league as it would look under the current settings, filling in keepers in where I believe they'll be played by my opponent managers. This not only gives me an idea of what type of players my opponents will be targeting in terms of statistics, but also by position. To facilitate that, I like to overlay a grid on the players and list the 5x5 categories with either "+" or "++" in each category if the player is an above average or elite contributor in that category, a blank if they're league average, and a "-" if they're well below league average. For example, Ichiro is "++" in AVG, "+" in SB, but blank in Runs and "-" in Home Runs and RBIs. This allows me to to assess a team's strength and weaknesses with a quick glance, something that's invaluable during the draft when I'm on the clock.
Once I've done this with each team I put the draft order down on another page and next to each team write down the manager's name and any obvious team weaknesses/deficiencies. The manager's name is important because it allows me to use any knowledge I've obtained about that manager to influence the mock. The weakness list is the real key, however, and sets me up for the next step. Here's an example of what I had at this point so far for one team, whose manager shall remain nameless. The included players are the team's keepers.
In Part Two of this post I'll run through how to run the mock, but most importantly what information you can gain from an exercise like this, and how you can apply it not only to your subsequent draft preparation, but also how you can use it to your advantage with your competitors to manipulate the actual draft to your advantage.
BAP Kardashians: Closers
Just a quick explanation here. Because of the small quantity of innings that relief pitchers contribute there really aren't any "plus-plus" players outside of the elite. For contributors that will help you in ratios or pitcher counting stats you're better off looking towards the deep pool of starters, where there can be some later bargains.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
BAP Kardashians: Catchers
Catcher is another "easy" position in this years' draft because there are very clear tiers. There's Joe Mauer by himself, then a nice little pack of Carlos Santana, Buster Posey, Brian McCann and Victor Martinez. Tier three has some guys with either obvious warts or limited ceilings like Mike Napoli and Geovany Soto. After those guys the talent really levels off, and you can easily wait until the end of your draft to take one of these guys. BAP is not a bad strategy to use here even if you don't feel comfortable using it for your entire draft. Remember as you read this article that "plus" in a category is really mitigated by the limitations of the position, and while you can certainly make up some ground contributors here won't be able to make nearly of an impact as say, an outfielder.
Home runs / RBIs:
Chris Iannetta, COL
John Buck, FLA
Stolen Bases:
Yadier Molina, STL
Miguel Olivo, SB
Russell Martin, NYY
Runs:
Due to the fact that most catchers hit 8th or 9th there aren't a lot of opportunities to score runs here. The best you can hope for outside of the upper tiered talent is 55-60 runs scored, so I recommend that you look elsewhere for help in that category.
AVG:
Carloz Ruiz, PHI
Yadier Molina, STL
No one's going to draft two catchers in a standard league, so you should end up with one of the top 10-12 without trying. You really shouldn't need to touch any of these players, but it's good to have a reference guide to prevent panicking. You don't want to stare at these stats for too long though, so let's move on as quickly as possible...Outfielders next!
Home runs / RBIs:
Chris Iannetta, COL
John Buck, FLA
Stolen Bases:
Yadier Molina, STL
Miguel Olivo, SB
Russell Martin, NYY
Runs:
Due to the fact that most catchers hit 8th or 9th there aren't a lot of opportunities to score runs here. The best you can hope for outside of the upper tiered talent is 55-60 runs scored, so I recommend that you look elsewhere for help in that category.
AVG:
Carloz Ruiz, PHI
Yadier Molina, STL
No one's going to draft two catchers in a standard league, so you should end up with one of the top 10-12 without trying. You really shouldn't need to touch any of these players, but it's good to have a reference guide to prevent panicking. You don't want to stare at these stats for too long though, so let's move on as quickly as possible...Outfielders next!
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Open Thread: Trade Review
I recently came across an offseason keeper league trade that looked a little like this:
Team A trades ATL 2B Dan Uggla to Team B for MIL 2B Rickie Weeks and TB Util Ben Zobrist
My initial reaction was that the team gaining Uggla was clearly the winner of the deal, namely because it was consolidating talent in fewer players, and as this league only allows 6 keepers (no penalties) it was much better to be on the "one" side of a two for one. Team B also has the benefit of knowing that with Uggla he'll get consistent production, something neither Zobrist, and especially not Weeks can attest to. There were other factors too. Uggla is has moved from a very difficult power park to hit home runs in to a much more favorable one. He's also moved to a lineup that, if Chipper Jones can have a modicum of health, will have much more protection for him. He'll even gain the added benefit of not having to face the formidable Braves pitching staff 15 times a year, which could realistically add 2-3 home runs by itself.
If my review had stopped there I would have simply congratulated Team B on an excellent job of selling high on Weeks and moved on. I happen to know both of the managers involved here though, and I could quite reconcile what I'd found with what I know of him. I decided to ask him why he'd made the deal. His response:
"As one of the quirks in this league we do not allow Yankees players to be rostered. Not only does that pull a great deal of offense in general out of the league, but especially offense at the premium positions of shortstop and second base. With Cano and Jeter off of the board it makes those two positions incredibly top-heavy. Now, obviously I'm taking a slight leap of faith here in that I'm hoping Weeks can stay healthy again for at least 400 at-bats, but Zobrist is a very realistic 20-20 candidate at both SS and 2B. He likely won't get the at-bats necessary for excellent counting stats because he's continually shuffled in and out of the lineup by Joel Maddon, but he'll still be a top-5 shortstop. That, combined with the fact that a healthy Weeks is a significant upgrade in speed over Uggla, and the fact that my other keepers include Brian McCann and Adam Dunn means that I have the flexibility to give up the 5-8 home run difference between the two second baggers. If Weeks improves at all I'll feel like a genius for managing to steal Zobrist as well."
Obviously, he'd thought this through. Zobrist is of course an extremely valuable player in real life because of his defense and positional flexibility, but he'd dropped off the fantasy map last season due to a terrible BABIP and a regression in HR/FB%. Maybe he's not a traditional keeper but at least in this league he has some underrated value. Thoughts? Are people interested in reading Third Party trade analysis articles?
Team A trades ATL 2B Dan Uggla to Team B for MIL 2B Rickie Weeks and TB Util Ben Zobrist
My initial reaction was that the team gaining Uggla was clearly the winner of the deal, namely because it was consolidating talent in fewer players, and as this league only allows 6 keepers (no penalties) it was much better to be on the "one" side of a two for one. Team B also has the benefit of knowing that with Uggla he'll get consistent production, something neither Zobrist, and especially not Weeks can attest to. There were other factors too. Uggla is has moved from a very difficult power park to hit home runs in to a much more favorable one. He's also moved to a lineup that, if Chipper Jones can have a modicum of health, will have much more protection for him. He'll even gain the added benefit of not having to face the formidable Braves pitching staff 15 times a year, which could realistically add 2-3 home runs by itself.
If my review had stopped there I would have simply congratulated Team B on an excellent job of selling high on Weeks and moved on. I happen to know both of the managers involved here though, and I could quite reconcile what I'd found with what I know of him. I decided to ask him why he'd made the deal. His response:
"As one of the quirks in this league we do not allow Yankees players to be rostered. Not only does that pull a great deal of offense in general out of the league, but especially offense at the premium positions of shortstop and second base. With Cano and Jeter off of the board it makes those two positions incredibly top-heavy. Now, obviously I'm taking a slight leap of faith here in that I'm hoping Weeks can stay healthy again for at least 400 at-bats, but Zobrist is a very realistic 20-20 candidate at both SS and 2B. He likely won't get the at-bats necessary for excellent counting stats because he's continually shuffled in and out of the lineup by Joel Maddon, but he'll still be a top-5 shortstop. That, combined with the fact that a healthy Weeks is a significant upgrade in speed over Uggla, and the fact that my other keepers include Brian McCann and Adam Dunn means that I have the flexibility to give up the 5-8 home run difference between the two second baggers. If Weeks improves at all I'll feel like a genius for managing to steal Zobrist as well."
Obviously, he'd thought this through. Zobrist is of course an extremely valuable player in real life because of his defense and positional flexibility, but he'd dropped off the fantasy map last season due to a terrible BABIP and a regression in HR/FB%. Maybe he's not a traditional keeper but at least in this league he has some underrated value. Thoughts? Are people interested in reading Third Party trade analysis articles?
Thursday, March 10, 2011
BAP Kardashians: Short stop
No lipsticking here; "plus" power at short means a shot at 20 home runs, and sometimes an outside shot. When you're dealing with such a weak position even that few can help compensate compared to what other teams are packing, and if you're loaded up at your other spots (as you should be in this scenario), you can easily pick up 20 steals or 80 runs while not killing your batting average.
Home runs / RBIs:
Jhonny Peralta, DET
Juan Uribe, SF
JJ Hardy, BAL
I like Hardy here. He'll be cheap-cheap-cheap and I don't know of any players who've had their power stats hurt by moving to Camden Yards. He could easily pop 25 round-trippers. Uribe shows up on his third list, and really is a testament to how many headaches you can avoid with someone who's earned eligibility at multiple positions.
Runs:
Ryan Theriot, STL
JJ Hardy, BAL
Marco Scutaro, BOS
Miguel Tejada, SF
Alexei Casilla, MIN
Hardy shows up again here, and in my opinion is ranked too low (outside of the top 10) for his position. A healthy Scutaro should rebound to the 80+ range, and if he doesn't Jed Lowrie immediately gets added to the top of this list.
Stolen Bases:
Eric Aybar, LAA
Alcides Escobar, KC
Ryan Theriot, STL
Jason Bartlett, SD
I don't see Escobar hitting 40 steals like he was expected to last season, but a push for 20-25 is definitely reasonable, and all four of these guys should be right around that level. Aybar has some upside in the other categories, but keep in mind that all of them will have very low power ceilings, even for short stops.
AVG:
Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE
Yunel Escobar, TOR
Almost statistical clones of each other, these two could make a 30-30 run if you added them together. Separate they're still valuable for their .290+ batting averages, and it's nice to know that there's room to grow.
When you consider the average production from the short stop position, it isn't really scraping the barrel to draft someone who will give you .270-70-10-50-5. Why waste a 9th round pick on something like Stephen Drew's .280-80-15-70-15 when a last round pick nets you 85% of the stats? If you've BAPed correctly you'll more than make up that difference by ignoring positional scarcity and going for pure talent. And as I've mentioned before, the best part about replacing one of the Kardashians (in real life as well as fantasy) they don't cost you anything.
Home runs / RBIs:
Jhonny Peralta, DET
Juan Uribe, SF
JJ Hardy, BAL
I like Hardy here. He'll be cheap-cheap-cheap and I don't know of any players who've had their power stats hurt by moving to Camden Yards. He could easily pop 25 round-trippers. Uribe shows up on his third list, and really is a testament to how many headaches you can avoid with someone who's earned eligibility at multiple positions.
Runs:
Ryan Theriot, STL
JJ Hardy, BAL
Marco Scutaro, BOS
Miguel Tejada, SF
Alexei Casilla, MIN
Hardy shows up again here, and in my opinion is ranked too low (outside of the top 10) for his position. A healthy Scutaro should rebound to the 80+ range, and if he doesn't Jed Lowrie immediately gets added to the top of this list.
Stolen Bases:
Eric Aybar, LAA
Alcides Escobar, KC
Ryan Theriot, STL
Jason Bartlett, SD
I don't see Escobar hitting 40 steals like he was expected to last season, but a push for 20-25 is definitely reasonable, and all four of these guys should be right around that level. Aybar has some upside in the other categories, but keep in mind that all of them will have very low power ceilings, even for short stops.
AVG:
Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE
Yunel Escobar, TOR
Almost statistical clones of each other, these two could make a 30-30 run if you added them together. Separate they're still valuable for their .290+ batting averages, and it's nice to know that there's room to grow.
When you consider the average production from the short stop position, it isn't really scraping the barrel to draft someone who will give you .270-70-10-50-5. Why waste a 9th round pick on something like Stephen Drew's .280-80-15-70-15 when a last round pick nets you 85% of the stats? If you've BAPed correctly you'll more than make up that difference by ignoring positional scarcity and going for pure talent. And as I've mentioned before, the best part about replacing one of the Kardashians (in real life as well as fantasy) they don't cost you anything.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
BAP Kardashians: Third Basemen
Third base is an interesting position this season, as it's been both one of the strongest and shallowest positions in fantasy baseball for the past few years. The cream of the crop is whipped and delicious, with legends aging gracefully ("When 900 years old you reach, not hit so good you will," - Alex Rodriguez) and their rising star replacements (Evan Longoria and the just slightly lesser Ryan Zimmerman). If you don't get one of the big guns it's a tricky position to navigate simply due to body type. Players who man the hot corner need to be big, strong men in order to make the throw across the diamond, and have the reach to soak up the line drives being sprayed all over their station. This naturally limits speed statistics, and if you're lacking speed by the 10th-15th rounds it's probably better to make up for it with your third or fourth outfielder. The whole point of the BAP Kardashian system is that you should never ever waste a round's pick selecting someone you feel you need. Aside from the top 20 players, anyone is "getable" through trades. Your roster, if your work hard enough, is the entire player universe. Okay, let's get to it...
Home Runs / RBIs
Pedro Alvarez, PIT
Ian Stewart, COL
Mark Reynolds, BAL
Edwin Encarnacion, TOR
Juan Uribe, SF
The first three names here are ones that you should recognize, but could go later that people think. 30 home runs is 30 home runs, and if you've sacrificed power earlier in the draft can do a lot of make it back up. Encarnacion is a huge sleeper if he can catch some of whatever possessed the rest of the Jays lineup in 2010.
Stolen Bases:
Chase Headley, SD
Macier Izturis, LAA
As I said, not much speed upside late here. Headley should be good for 10, and if Izturis can steal at-bats from Brandon Wood he might touch 20-25. My best bet is to get your speed elsewhere, and load up on the stats that are more readily available late here.
Runs:
Scott Rolen, CIN
Placido Polanco, PHI
Jhonny Peralta, DET
Miguel Tejada, SF
Casey Blake, LAD
None of these guys will set the world on fire, but they're all also very underrated, very consistent producers in counting stats. As a bonus all of them should be good for at least a .275 batting average. Polanco is one to keep an eye on if Chase Utley has to miss a lot of time; his run scoring ability will be severely dampened if he's hitting in front of Jimmy Rollins instead of everyone's not-so-secret man crush.
AVG:
Pablo Sandoval, SF
Placido Polanco, PHI
Omar Infante, FLA
Alberto Callaspo, KC
Callaspo is more of a fill-in player as he'll be fighting for at-bats all season, but his tendency to go on long hot streaks plays well for h2h leagues and he'll cost you nothing. Sandoval still has the skills to hit .300+ and should rebound to near that level this season. Infante is especially valuable because you can shift him around your lineup to cover for injuries or strategic plays in other categories.
Third base is probably the Constantinople of the fantasy scene: palaces abut flop houses. There's still some value late, but really only home runs and .300 hitters are in abundance. We'll see some more speed in the next BAP Kardashian, when we look at short stops.
Home Runs / RBIs
Pedro Alvarez, PIT
Ian Stewart, COL
Mark Reynolds, BAL
Edwin Encarnacion, TOR
Juan Uribe, SF
The first three names here are ones that you should recognize, but could go later that people think. 30 home runs is 30 home runs, and if you've sacrificed power earlier in the draft can do a lot of make it back up. Encarnacion is a huge sleeper if he can catch some of whatever possessed the rest of the Jays lineup in 2010.
Stolen Bases:
Chase Headley, SD
Macier Izturis, LAA
As I said, not much speed upside late here. Headley should be good for 10, and if Izturis can steal at-bats from Brandon Wood he might touch 20-25. My best bet is to get your speed elsewhere, and load up on the stats that are more readily available late here.
Runs:
Scott Rolen, CIN
Placido Polanco, PHI
Jhonny Peralta, DET
Miguel Tejada, SF
Casey Blake, LAD
None of these guys will set the world on fire, but they're all also very underrated, very consistent producers in counting stats. As a bonus all of them should be good for at least a .275 batting average. Polanco is one to keep an eye on if Chase Utley has to miss a lot of time; his run scoring ability will be severely dampened if he's hitting in front of Jimmy Rollins instead of everyone's not-so-secret man crush.
AVG:
Pablo Sandoval, SF
Placido Polanco, PHI
Omar Infante, FLA
Alberto Callaspo, KC
Callaspo is more of a fill-in player as he'll be fighting for at-bats all season, but his tendency to go on long hot streaks plays well for h2h leagues and he'll cost you nothing. Sandoval still has the skills to hit .300+ and should rebound to near that level this season. Infante is especially valuable because you can shift him around your lineup to cover for injuries or strategic plays in other categories.
Third base is probably the Constantinople of the fantasy scene: palaces abut flop houses. There's still some value late, but really only home runs and .300 hitters are in abundance. We'll see some more speed in the next BAP Kardashian, when we look at short stops.
BAP Kardashians: Second Basemen
As I continue to examine late-round players who can operate as one category "band-aids" I'll take a look at my favorite position of second base. It's not only the position that I used to play in baseball but also one very close to my fantasy heart as I've owned the best player at the position over the last half decade in Chase Utley (the good) and still do (the bad, as he's likely missing several months due to knee surgery). A much shallower position than first base, there will be fewer players late that can help compensate for categorical defects earned early on. There's still value to be had, however, so I'll get started. All the players listed are likely to be available after the 10th round.
HR / RBIs:
Aaron Hill, TOR
Neil Walker, PIT
Juan Uribe, SF
Bill Hall, HOU
All of these guys should be right around or just over 20 home runs, a plus at such a weak power position. Hill is so much of a sleeper that everyone knows he is, but you should still be fine waiting until at least the 10th round. Hall is the real upside play here as he'll cost a last round pick but could produce 30 home runs playing in a smaller park.
Stolen Bases:
Chone Figgins, SEA
Brian Roberts, BAL
Ryan Theriot, STL
Macier Izturis, LAA
Eric Young Jr, COL
Steals are plentiful late at second this season, though hoping for any of these guys to hit over 10 home runs is likely a useless exercise. Izturis is the late play here in my opinion. If he can unseat Brandon Wood to earn a 450+ at-bats at third base he could easily top 25 steals.
AVG:
Howie Kendrick, LAA
Tsuyoshi Nishioka, MIN
Mike Aviles, KC
Omar Infante, FLA
Freddy Sanchez, SF
Skip Schumaker, STL
Like steals, .300 hitters aren't too difficult to find late at second base. Kendrick is primed for a post-hype .320 season but final round players like Sanchez and Schumaker can still net you a .290 average with very respectable run totals. Sanchez especially helps in average because his low walk rate produces so many at-bats.
Runs:
Gordon Beckham, CWS
Chone Figgins, SEA
Reed Brignac, TB
Dustin Ackley, SEA
Orlando Hudson, SD
"Upside" here is relative as I'd be surprised to anyone in this group eclipse 90 runs, but no one aside from Beckham and Figgins should get the at-bats. All of these guys will score when in the lineup however, so if you want a stop-gap to stabilize your lineup before you swing a deal with an also-ran, these guys will buy you the time to have others play themselves out of contention and lower the asking price.
Tomorrow: Third base, which is in its own way just as shallow as second base.
HR / RBIs:
Aaron Hill, TOR
Neil Walker, PIT
Juan Uribe, SF
Bill Hall, HOU
All of these guys should be right around or just over 20 home runs, a plus at such a weak power position. Hill is so much of a sleeper that everyone knows he is, but you should still be fine waiting until at least the 10th round. Hall is the real upside play here as he'll cost a last round pick but could produce 30 home runs playing in a smaller park.
Stolen Bases:
Chone Figgins, SEA
Brian Roberts, BAL
Ryan Theriot, STL
Macier Izturis, LAA
Eric Young Jr, COL
Steals are plentiful late at second this season, though hoping for any of these guys to hit over 10 home runs is likely a useless exercise. Izturis is the late play here in my opinion. If he can unseat Brandon Wood to earn a 450+ at-bats at third base he could easily top 25 steals.
AVG:
Howie Kendrick, LAA
Tsuyoshi Nishioka, MIN
Mike Aviles, KC
Omar Infante, FLA
Freddy Sanchez, SF
Skip Schumaker, STL
Like steals, .300 hitters aren't too difficult to find late at second base. Kendrick is primed for a post-hype .320 season but final round players like Sanchez and Schumaker can still net you a .290 average with very respectable run totals. Sanchez especially helps in average because his low walk rate produces so many at-bats.
Runs:
Gordon Beckham, CWS
Chone Figgins, SEA
Reed Brignac, TB
Dustin Ackley, SEA
Orlando Hudson, SD
"Upside" here is relative as I'd be surprised to anyone in this group eclipse 90 runs, but no one aside from Beckham and Figgins should get the at-bats. All of these guys will score when in the lineup however, so if you want a stop-gap to stabilize your lineup before you swing a deal with an also-ran, these guys will buy you the time to have others play themselves out of contention and lower the asking price.
Tomorrow: Third base, which is in its own way just as shallow as second base.
BAP Kardashians: First Basemen
As I prefaced earlier, I'll be doing some quick reference guides for late round stat-helpers throughout the week, sorted by position. These are players that you can have confidence you'll be able to snag late in drafts, allowing you to draft according to the Best Player Available mantra while still having the option of keeping the team, or at least dealing from a position of strength after the draft.
Here are the lists, organized by the category in which they can best help your team, and sorted by ADP (provided in this instance by mockdraftcentral):
Steals:
Gaby Sanchez, FLA
Michael Cuddyer, MIN
James Loney, LAD
Garret Jones, PIT
All of these guys stole 7+ bases last season, and both are an outside shot to get to double digits this year. Speed is obviously a weak category for 1B so it might be better to try and make steals up at a different position if you can, especially at OF.
Home Runs / RBIs:
Paul Konerko, CWS (a little obvious for this exercise, but as of right now he's not being drafted as a starting 1B in many leagues)
Carlos Pena, CHC
Gaby Sanchez, FLA
Mike Napoli, TX (actually worth playing at 1B if your BAP somehow has you drafting 2 catchers)
Garret Jones, PIT
Justin Smoak, SEA
Kila Ka'aihue, KC
If you hadn't realized, 1B is crazy deep this season. None of these guys would be starters in a 12 team league, but all of them are a lock for at least 15 home runs with the ability to comfortably push past 20 if healthy. According to Yahoo the average 1B posted up 24 home runs in 2010, so if you're trying to compensate for a stat deficiency late you'll probably have to sacrifice some average batting average.
Runs:
Aubrey Huff, SF
Michael Cuddyer, MIN
Both of these guys aren't as good in real life as they are in fantasy but are very solid bets to pile up the counting stats. Huff is likely to regress a bit after his return to relevance last season, but with a full does of Buster Posey and the arrival of Brandon Belt he should still score close to 90 times even with reduced ratios.
AVG:
Billy Butler, KC
Derek Lee, BAL
Mitch Moreland, TX
James Loney, LAD
Freddie Freeman, ATL
Daniel Murphy, NYM
All of these guys should be right around .290, which can really help balance out a lineup. Remember, if you take Adam Dunn's 600 at-bats of .260 and add 600 at-bats of .290 you get .275, and with these guys you'll still average 30 home runs per person. That's a lot easier to swallow, and if you add just one more .290 guy at say, an OF slot, you're contending for the AVG crown in roto or at least putting some serious pressure on your opponents week to week in h2h.
Remember, these are just intended to be handy reference guides for your draft day. If you find that your BAP draft has you missing out on an elite 1B, take a deep breath, stick to your guns, and then consult this list late to help you address any statistical dearth you've stumbled into. Tomorrow I'll take a look at a slightly shallower position at second base. There's a smaller batch of cream at the top, but still valuable contributers to be found to pretty up that back end.
Here are the lists, organized by the category in which they can best help your team, and sorted by ADP (provided in this instance by mockdraftcentral):
Steals:
Gaby Sanchez, FLA
Michael Cuddyer, MIN
James Loney, LAD
Garret Jones, PIT
All of these guys stole 7+ bases last season, and both are an outside shot to get to double digits this year. Speed is obviously a weak category for 1B so it might be better to try and make steals up at a different position if you can, especially at OF.
Home Runs / RBIs:
Paul Konerko, CWS (a little obvious for this exercise, but as of right now he's not being drafted as a starting 1B in many leagues)
Carlos Pena, CHC
Gaby Sanchez, FLA
Mike Napoli, TX (actually worth playing at 1B if your BAP somehow has you drafting 2 catchers)
Garret Jones, PIT
Justin Smoak, SEA
Kila Ka'aihue, KC
If you hadn't realized, 1B is crazy deep this season. None of these guys would be starters in a 12 team league, but all of them are a lock for at least 15 home runs with the ability to comfortably push past 20 if healthy. According to Yahoo the average 1B posted up 24 home runs in 2010, so if you're trying to compensate for a stat deficiency late you'll probably have to sacrifice some average batting average.
Runs:
Aubrey Huff, SF
Michael Cuddyer, MIN
Both of these guys aren't as good in real life as they are in fantasy but are very solid bets to pile up the counting stats. Huff is likely to regress a bit after his return to relevance last season, but with a full does of Buster Posey and the arrival of Brandon Belt he should still score close to 90 times even with reduced ratios.
AVG:
Billy Butler, KC
Derek Lee, BAL
Mitch Moreland, TX
James Loney, LAD
Freddie Freeman, ATL
Daniel Murphy, NYM
All of these guys should be right around .290, which can really help balance out a lineup. Remember, if you take Adam Dunn's 600 at-bats of .260 and add 600 at-bats of .290 you get .275, and with these guys you'll still average 30 home runs per person. That's a lot easier to swallow, and if you add just one more .290 guy at say, an OF slot, you're contending for the AVG crown in roto or at least putting some serious pressure on your opponents week to week in h2h.
Remember, these are just intended to be handy reference guides for your draft day. If you find that your BAP draft has you missing out on an elite 1B, take a deep breath, stick to your guns, and then consult this list late to help you address any statistical dearth you've stumbled into. Tomorrow I'll take a look at a slightly shallower position at second base. There's a smaller batch of cream at the top, but still valuable contributers to be found to pretty up that back end.
BAP Kardashians
BAP stands for "Best Available Player" in this case, a drafting strategy that is fairly common in fantasy leagues and that everyone should have at least a general understanding of. The rational is that you should always take the best player you can at your draft slot, regardless of position, and then try and fill in any gaping holes later on when the difference between available players isn't so great. Why take a 5th round talent in the 4th round, for example? If you don't like the 4th round talent you picked, you can always trade him for that 5th round talent and get something extra to sweeten the deal. It's a strategy that can necessitate a lot of maintenance, but if you're up to the challenge it can let you draft without worrying about positional runs or researching too heavily into deep sleepers.
Now, aside from ensuring that you have plenty of valuable trade chips by the 10th round, sometimes BAP drafting can actually result in a very impressive team on its own. This is where the "Kardashian Principle" comes into play. I call it that because basically you're prettying up a "nontraditional" looking team with a sweet back end of the draft. Feel free to finish laughing before you scroll down.
Say that you have a late middle round pick, the 10th in a 12 team. When your pick comes Robinson Cano is clearly the best pick available. A dynamic, solid contributor in 4 of 5 positions, and a good bet to stay healthy as well. Your second rounder nets you Roy Halladay, the best pitcher on the board by far. You're all set here, and looking good. Picks 3-7 however, net you Felix Hernandez, Adam Dunn, Mike Stanton, Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce. All excellent picks, but at this point you A) don't have a first baseman, and B) have a team batting average that will be lucky to break .260. All of the traditional .300 hitters are gone by that point, and most managers are thinking about how they can flip some of their pitching or power for some singles. If you draft BAP consistently, you'll be in this situation. You can panic and start loading up on more power and pitching to trade, and lose out on the value that you should be taking on the 8th round, or you can stick to your guns and find creative ways late to keep your massive advantages in ratios and power intact while bringing that average up. A player like Billy Butler is an obvious fix, but Logan Morrison and Freddie Freeman can be taken much later and give you 500+ at-bats of a .300 average. Combine one of them with 500 at-bats of a super-utility like Ben Zobrist or (the cheaper) Jed Lowrie and you'll have a team average more in the .270-.275 range. It's that easy, and they'll be cheap enough fixes that if you find out that it's not quite enough of a modification you won't be burning down the house trying to get a deal done later.
I'll be doing a series of quick-hit columns over the week so that you'll have a reference as to what "Statistical Kardashians" will be available in the back end of your draft. A lot of drafting is not panicking when other managers deviate from your expectations, and having reference sheets are a great way to keep a cool head and put the pressure back on where it should be: on the competition.
As an homage to the above scenario first up are First Basemen, and then I'll try and get through the rest of the lineup by draft day.
Now, aside from ensuring that you have plenty of valuable trade chips by the 10th round, sometimes BAP drafting can actually result in a very impressive team on its own. This is where the "Kardashian Principle" comes into play. I call it that because basically you're prettying up a "nontraditional" looking team with a sweet back end of the draft. Feel free to finish laughing before you scroll down.
Say that you have a late middle round pick, the 10th in a 12 team. When your pick comes Robinson Cano is clearly the best pick available. A dynamic, solid contributor in 4 of 5 positions, and a good bet to stay healthy as well. Your second rounder nets you Roy Halladay, the best pitcher on the board by far. You're all set here, and looking good. Picks 3-7 however, net you Felix Hernandez, Adam Dunn, Mike Stanton, Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce. All excellent picks, but at this point you A) don't have a first baseman, and B) have a team batting average that will be lucky to break .260. All of the traditional .300 hitters are gone by that point, and most managers are thinking about how they can flip some of their pitching or power for some singles. If you draft BAP consistently, you'll be in this situation. You can panic and start loading up on more power and pitching to trade, and lose out on the value that you should be taking on the 8th round, or you can stick to your guns and find creative ways late to keep your massive advantages in ratios and power intact while bringing that average up. A player like Billy Butler is an obvious fix, but Logan Morrison and Freddie Freeman can be taken much later and give you 500+ at-bats of a .300 average. Combine one of them with 500 at-bats of a super-utility like Ben Zobrist or (the cheaper) Jed Lowrie and you'll have a team average more in the .270-.275 range. It's that easy, and they'll be cheap enough fixes that if you find out that it's not quite enough of a modification you won't be burning down the house trying to get a deal done later.
I'll be doing a series of quick-hit columns over the week so that you'll have a reference as to what "Statistical Kardashians" will be available in the back end of your draft. A lot of drafting is not panicking when other managers deviate from your expectations, and having reference sheets are a great way to keep a cool head and put the pressure back on where it should be: on the competition.
As an homage to the above scenario first up are First Basemen, and then I'll try and get through the rest of the lineup by draft day.
Mission Statement
As the title indicates, this is intended to be a fantasy baseball blog that will "hopefully" offer some assistance in stealing, or "vulturing" those crucial extra points that mean the difference between a Champion and an also-ran. I'll have a few guest columnists stop by and try to incorporate their work, and hopefully you'll find at least some of the articles useful.
My credentials that support you listening to me are fairly mundane in expert circles but I'm working on building credibility through submissions to more substantial sites. I've been playing fantasy baseball since 1999 and have won 6 championships in both rotisserie and head to head, all under the Yahoo format. I recently finished first in a highly competitive 12 team h2h dynasty league and tenth in a 12 team dynasty rotisserie league (a rebuilding year as I transitioned my keeper core from an average age of 31 to 26). In 17 fantasy seasons I have finished out of the money 3 times.
My main philosophy when playing fantasy baseball is that winning is 20% luck, 30% preparation, and 50% learning your other managers. Any manager can prepare enough for a good draft. Any manager can get lucky picking up the next Jose Bautista off of the free agent wire. To contend year in and year out you need to be able to do both of those, and modify your team to counter any problems that crop up. Which they will. The best deals I've made would never have been consummated unless I initiated the trades, and the art of the deal is my favorite part of fantasy baseball. We'll deal with everything here, but the main focus of the blog will be to try and preclude disaster, and also how to mitigate and overcome it. The first article will go up tonight and I'll try and just jump in from there, but for now I'll leave you with this quote:
"A salesman sells you something that you want. A good salesman allows you to buy something that you need."
My credentials that support you listening to me are fairly mundane in expert circles but I'm working on building credibility through submissions to more substantial sites. I've been playing fantasy baseball since 1999 and have won 6 championships in both rotisserie and head to head, all under the Yahoo format. I recently finished first in a highly competitive 12 team h2h dynasty league and tenth in a 12 team dynasty rotisserie league (a rebuilding year as I transitioned my keeper core from an average age of 31 to 26). In 17 fantasy seasons I have finished out of the money 3 times.
My main philosophy when playing fantasy baseball is that winning is 20% luck, 30% preparation, and 50% learning your other managers. Any manager can prepare enough for a good draft. Any manager can get lucky picking up the next Jose Bautista off of the free agent wire. To contend year in and year out you need to be able to do both of those, and modify your team to counter any problems that crop up. Which they will. The best deals I've made would never have been consummated unless I initiated the trades, and the art of the deal is my favorite part of fantasy baseball. We'll deal with everything here, but the main focus of the blog will be to try and preclude disaster, and also how to mitigate and overcome it. The first article will go up tonight and I'll try and just jump in from there, but for now I'll leave you with this quote:
"A salesman sells you something that you want. A good salesman allows you to buy something that you need."
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