Roto Draft Aftermatch: Teamcentric

Because I didn't get to fully address my rotisserie mock in the general recap (ed. note: will be up before Friday, still waiting on responses from 5 managers), I wanted to revisit my strategy in a little more detail as a review of the process, and determine how it needs to be tweaked or added to for next season.  I started with six keepers: Brandon Phillips, Jon Lester, Carlos Santana, Carlos Gonzalez, Jose Reyes and Ryan Zimmerman.  Except for Cargo and Zim, there was a decided lack of "traditional" power and some serious RBI concerns.  I say "traditional" power because CSantana and Phillips will provide plus power at their positions, but won't reach the "plus power" level of say, an OF or 1B.  Scanning the available player list there were only two 1B with clear 30HR potential in Carlos Pena and Paul Konerko.  Pena would complete a Carlos trifecta but I already had AVG concerns with Santana and Phillips, and I wanted to maintain a team batting average in the vicinity of  .285.  Konerko, despite having a renaissance year in 2011, was not worth a 7th round pick over some of the other available bats.  So, OF was a clear choice, with AVG/HR/RBI as a priority.  Then I could add a second SP (more valuable in this league due to a low 1250 innings cap) and either Konerko or a third OF if the available players at that position still outclassed my projection for Konerko (.275-85-30-85-0).  Here's what I came up with as my post-draft roster, with the round selected next to the player:


C Carlos Santana, kept
1B Aubrey Huff, Round 15
2B Brandon Phillips, kept
SS Jose Reyes, kept
3B Ryan Zimmerman, kept
OF1 Carlos Gonzalez, kept
OF2 Hunter Pence, Round 7
OF3 Chris Young, Round 8
Util Travis Snider, Round 18
Bench Wil Venable, Round 19
Bench Luke Scott, Round 20
Bench Mitch Moreland, Round 25
Bench Omar Infante, Round 24

SP1 Jon Lester, kept
SP2 Max Scherzer, Round 9
RP1 Jonathan Broxton, Round 11
RP2 Jake Mcgee, Round 16
Bench Shaun Marcum, Round 10
Bench Brandon Morrow, Round 12
Bench Jhoulys Chacin, Round 14
Bench Edwin Jackson, Round 21
Bench David Hernandez, Round 23
Bench Hong Chi-Kuo, Round 17
Bench Wilton Lopez, Round, 22
Bench Drew Storen, Round 13

This squad is projected to gain 74 points and place third by using last years statistics, and considering that my team last year placed 8th out of 12 that would be a significant improvement.  Additionally, my Util, SS, C and RP slot should be vastly improved compared to those projections as the 74 points expects only 26 saves total from my 3 closers, and is using under 200ABs for Carlos Santana.  I'm expecting at least 85 points, and if one or more out of Snider, Moreland, Scott or Venable takes the next step my Util slot could net me an extra 2-3 points easily.  My rotation has some health concerns with Morrow, Marcum and Scherzer all having missed time due to injuries in the last 2 years, but if healthy will maximize my Ks and still net a decent win total.  Hopefully Marcum and Lester can offset Morrow's whip if it's more like 1.40 than the 1.25 he put up in his last 100 innings of 2010.  I am depending a little on my bullpen to produce at least one more closer, but if I finish in the middle of the pack I'll be more than happy.  My infield and outfield is rock solid, and that was the trade-off I was willing to make according to my mock.  The Aubrey Huff selection in Round 15 was my only consolation to positional scarcity, and if he puts up 80-25-80 with a respectable average I'm fine.  If Huff tanks I'll have to hope Moreland or Scott (top 10 HR/FB% last season, in a much better park) can fill my 1B slot.

All in all I'm very pleased with the tiering exercises and mocking I did as preparation.  I was really only thrown a few times early in the draft where some teams really reached for pet players, but I managed not to overspend on pitching late, and nabbed almost all of my sleepers for rounds 20-25.  The few hiccups that I did encounter had more to do with peculiarities of the league, and the increase in relative value that closers gain when you have a low innings cap and deep benches.  I would probably make a note of that for next season, but I'm not sure that I could ever see myself taking Neftali Felix over Chris Carpenter.  74 points with a very solid chance to add 10 more is a successful draft, and thanks to my Kardashian work I have a very healthy list of players that I can sub in and out as team weaknesses become apparent.