Taking off from where we started yesterday we're ready to run through our mock keeper league draft. I like to take into account 4 factors when I do this, namely:
1) What names will be in my opponent's faces? I.E. Who are the highest ranked players available at the pick? Even if my opponent managers are targeting say, Adam Jones, they'll likely be inclined to pass him up if he's the 12th best available OF. The natural response is to assume that he'll remain available for another round.
2) What are the team needs of each team? Using my cheat sheet from Part One I've identified the major deficiency of each team by category and position. This factor needs to be taken with a grain of salt though, as some statistics (steals) and positions (catcher, starting pitcher) naturally gravitate towards later rounds of a draft. In most advanced leagues, you'll probably see closers take a back seat as well.
3) What are each manager's preferred styles of play? In any keeper league you need to make it priority #1 to know your competitors. Know their player preferences, know their drafting tendencies, know if they're a homer, know what their favorite color is, etc. Knowing if someone is a Sox fan could mean the difference between them picking Jacoby Ellsbury over Ichiro or BJ Upton as an early speed option. Knowing if someone reads Fangraphs or not could mean a 4 round difference in when Brett Anderson is drafted. Does a manager favor rookies or veterans? FIP or ERA? Etc, etc. It's not always information you'll have, but when you have it you'll find that you can always use it to fine-tune your strategies.
4) Keeper positional scarcity. Were 11 first basemen kept in a 12 team league? Were all of the power options at second base kept? A smart owner will know that if there were 6 shortstops kept, but there are 8 good shortstops, then they should reach for one of the two good remaining players at that position. That's fine. What isn't fine is reaching for a shortstop if there were 7 good remaining players. A panicky owner will do that, and if you can predict who that is, and when, you can profit from it. Look at what positions were kept compared to your positional tiers. Now apply that to each team.
Okay, now that you've done your homework, run through 3-4 rounds of picks. Take into account all four factors I listed above and try to combine them to predict the picks. When will the closer run happen? You'll be able to answer that if you find the round when enough teams have addressed their major problems and are confident enough to start picking luxury players. If you're trying to stash Adam Jones as a sleeper in the 14th Round but there are 4 teams picking ahead of you who only have one or two outfielders picked so far, you're probably not going to get him. Take that information and take the Pac-Man in the 13th, or find those 4 team's managers and talk down your boy, or talk up some other outfielders that would also make sense at that position. With your mock you have an invaluable weapon. You can use the information that backs up the picks to either make that mock a reality, or to manipulate the league into shifting the probability away from it happening. This is your chance to re-write history.
Thoughts? Was this helpful? I'm interested to hear your comments.
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