Saturday, April 2, 2011

Roto Keeper League Draft Recap

Fresh off my 12 team h2h league I had to jump right in to my uber-competitive rotisserie keeper league draft.  This is the year 10 anniversary of the start and the first year that there's been only 1 new manager.  It's always an interesting draft with this group because the research is impeccable, and every year there are a few managers who are trying some new strategy that throws everyone's drafts off.  I wanted to ask each manager some general questions to process what went on this year.  Keepers from last season are in parentheses, and the scoring is 5x5 mixed with 25 man rosters.  The final draft results can be found here.

WAR Savage (V. Martinez, C. Crawford, J. Morneau, B. Upton, C. Hamels, G. Sizemore)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?

2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?

FZeroes (B. Phillips, J. Lester, C. Gonzalez, C. Santana, R. Zimmerman)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?
I was a little worried about my power keeping no first baseman and only one OF, but my general rule about keepers is that if I have a player in the top 6 at their position, I keep them regardless of stats.  I figure that I can always find stat fillers in the draft.  I wanted to make sure to take a power bat with my first pick, and even with my second rounder if Paul Konerko was off the board.  I was hoping that I could get one of my "Tier 1" starters to fall to my third round pick because there were 8 of those left starting the draft.  It was a huge relief not to have to reach for infield help early as there were some guys that went early that I just hate.


In terms of executing my plan I got Hunter Pence second overall, who should help my power numbers without hurting my average, and was ecstatic to land OF Chris Young and SP Max Scherzer in rounds 2-3.  I'd looked at Young with my first round pick and with such a tight innings cap (1250IP) Scherzer's K rate is huge.  Unfortunately Konerko went in the middle of the tenth round and I whiffed on most of the mid-tier 1B also.  I managed not to panic-draft anyone, but ended up with Aubrey Huff at 1B who isn't exactly a cornerstone.  Late picks of Luke Scott and Mitch Moreland mean that if one of them pans out I can move Huff to a more appropriate Util slot, but if neither blossom I'll really need Travis Snider to hit close to 30HR to make up the gap.
2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
No offense to the managers who draft this way, but I was shocked to see Bryce Harper even drafted.  He won't play this season, and might not even play full-time next season.  Obviously great young players are at a premium in dynasty leagues, but with only 6 keepers slots I feel it's almost impossible to win if you're wasting a 7th round pick on someone who won't help you this season.  I was probably guilty of reaching a little bit on Aubrey Huff in the 15th Round.  He's not a reach there by ADP, but there were comparable 1B players on the board near the 20th.  I always think that the mid and late-tier closers go too early but at this point I think it's just how this league drafts.  I'll need to change my draft strategy if I want any mid-tier guys, and that's just how it is.

In terms of steals there were so many pitchers that went late that I agonized over.  I spent most of my prep time working on tiering and even by the twelfth Round there were pitchers left on my second and third tiers.  I felt compelled to price enforce here, and ended up with a star-studded 5 man rotation plus a very solid sleeper in Edwin Jackson.  However, there were still SO many pitchers available late.  Ted Lilly in the 12th is crazy value, CJ Wilson in the 19th, Brett Myers in the 20th...the list goes on.  People that prepared well and waited until the last second on pitching were still able to find value.  Heck, James McDonald went in the frickin last round, and he could get 170Ks with a sub 4.00 ERA.

Dirtdogs  (A. Gonzalez, I. Kinsler, A. Ethier, A. Rios, D. Price, J. Verlander)
This manager was unable to attend the draft, and drafted through pre-ranks.

Bad News Bodie  (J. Votto, J. Upton, E. Longoria, J. Heyward, M. Stanton, P. Fielder)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?

My basic strategy coming into this draft was to focus on pitching for the earlier rounds, since my 6 keepers were all position players. I know Starting Pitching is deep this year, but in order to try and compete in the pitching categories, I wanted to build a strong staff.

I was also concerned with the lack of speed my 6 keepers would be giving me this year, so I wanted to make sure I got some speedsters up the middle. My 3 OF spots were already taken with my keepers and I had no utility spot either. I may have reached a bit for Castro and Figgins, but I needed steals at those positions and I was worried about the talent pool at those two positions the further you go.

I feel like I followed my strategy for the most part. I filled up my gaps up the middle early on. I waited too long on a few starting pitchers that I was targeting, but I am confident with the starting pitchers I drafted.

2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
I was very happy with getting Carpenter with the 128th pick. His ADP on ESPN was around 49, so I think I got great value there. I also liked my round 23 pick of James Shields. I think he got unlucky last year and even though he’s pitching in the AL East, he’ll have a bounce back year and be close to 200 K’s again this year.

I thought Polish Sausages’ pick of Adam Jones in the 17th round was really good. The Fzeros also had a nice pick in the last round with Mitch Moreland. I like him a lot this year.

I think my worst pick was my round 22 pick where I drafted Ryan Theriot. I should’ve gone for either Wilton Lopez or David Hernandez to have another potential closer in my bullpen. I also wasn’t real happy having to draft Chone Figgins in the 9th round. I think his ADP is a full two rounds after that. But given my team, speed was crucial.

I’m always one for drafting stud prospects early on, even if they aren’t supposed to get called up for a few months. But I think the Bryce Harper pick in round 7 was even too early for me. I think eventually he’ll be a great ballplayer, but I think it’s at least a full year away, if not two. 

Bonus Question: How influenced were your picks by the keeper format? I.E. were you drafting to win this season or more drafting a core that can be competitive for 3-4 seasons?
I would say this year my picks were not as influenced (as they usually are) by the keeper format. Obviously I drafted Starlin Castro WAY before his ADP, because I like him for the long haul at a scarce position. So that particular pick was influenced by the keeper format. However, the rest of my draft was solely based on competing this year.

Sullys  (J. Mauer, R. Howard, N. Cruz, S. Strassburg, I. Suzuki, D. Jeter)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?
I wanted to focus on two good SP’s, and then the best values, regardless of position. I also tend to
grab closers from bad teams, as I can get them a round or two later once the closer run starts. I am
generally satisfied with the draft, although my team speed needs some help.


2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
Like last year, I’ll break them down in round groups – my player first, the league second.
Rounds 7-10 best: Dan Haren – after Greinke, Hanson and Gallardo were taken, I felt good
grabbing him in Round 8
Drew Stubbs – good speed & power; avg should improve
Rounds 7-10 worst: Chad Billingsley – better position players available, and SP pretty deep this year
Starlin Castro – stats seem “Polanco-like” to me; great avg, little power
& rbi, doesn’t run a lot…maybe batting 2nd this year will help
Rounds 11-15 best: Joe Nathan – felt fortunate to get on the closer run before it got out of hand in
rd 11; when healthy, he’s up there with Soria & B Wilson
Rounds 11-15 worst:
Brian Roberts – if healthy, he’ll post #’s that put him in top 5 2B’s
Casey McGehee – rbi inflated last yr due to Fielder’s poor year; can’t
count on that again. This is Jorge Cantu in a Brewer uniform.
Francisco Cordero – if you want to start a closer panic, it would be
better to pick a guy who won’t be out of a job by Memorial Day; Street,
Axford, even C Perez were safer options.
Rounds 16-20 best: (tie) Chipper Jones – sure, he’s never healthy, but I wanted my favorite player
on my fantasy team before he retires. Plus, look at the SLG pct this
spring! I’ll take that gamble in round 20.
(tie) Michael Pineda – if he’s for real, my SP keepers of him & Strasburg next year could recall
the Sully glory days of Pedro & Big Unit
Manny Ramirez – aging player, but still fantasy relevant
Rounds 16-20 worst:  Ian Kennedy – Dexter Fowler could have been had, & I needed speed
Erik Bedard – I hate Erik Bedard. Not sure why anymore, but I still hate
Erik Bedard. We all have players like that. Players we hate. I hate Erik
Bedard. Typing this message makes me hate him even more.
Rounds 21-25 best: Jorge Posada – good insurance against Mauer’s knee. Moving to DH should get
him more AB’s
Rounds 21-25 worst:  Desmond Jennings – nice guy to stash away; will contribute speed &
maybe more soon
Hideki Matsui – unlike Manny, this is an aging player who is NOT fantasy
relevant
Jason Varitek – see note on Matsui, Hideki, above. The next pick (Ruiz)
is a better option


How influenced were your picks by the keeper format?
It should be obvious that my first pick (Bryce Harper) was completely influenced by the keeper
format. Finishing in 11th last year (and even more disturbing, my trend of finishes since ’07), I
thought it was a gamble worth taking. My keepers aren’t getting any younger (Ichiro, Jeter), so
an infusion of youth (Strasburg, Harper, maybe even Pineda) is desperately needed.

Realistically, I would be happy with a top half finish this year, with an eye for real competition in
2012. I’m also interested in reading my draft comments at the all-star break to see how full of
crap I am.


The Guinypigs  (B. Posey, D. Uggla, K. Morales, M. Latos, J. Papelbon, J. Ellsbury)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?

2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?

Polish Sausages  (A. Rodriguez, T. Tulowitzki, M. Teixiera, C. Utley, C. Sabathia, B. McCann)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?
Now in my 3rd year in this league, I was happy with the core keepers I was starting with. Every
position around the diamond was covered, so my focus was more on grabbing outfielders and
pitching. Early I wanted to grab 2 starters remaining in my upper tier, then look at OF with speed,
then closers. My picks reflected that strategy pretty well.


2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
Like last year, I’ll break them down in round groups – my player first, the league second.

Rounds 7-10 best:
Tommy Hanson – he was my top rated SP after all the keepers were set
Pablo Sandoval – it looks like has turned into a better Panda circa 2009
Rounds 7-10 worst: 
Brett Gardner – a bit of a reach, especially if he hits 9th regularly
Kelly Johnson – it seemed early to grab a 2B with his expected numbers
Rounds 11-15 best:  Bobby Abreu – solid performer with good power and speed potential
Delmon Young – has potential for elite numbers as he settles in
Rounds 11-15 worst:  Leo Nunez – 13th round too early to go after a below-average closer
Kurt Suzuki – next C taken was 49 picks later
Rounds 16-20 best:  Adam Jones – expecting a bounce-back year like Rios in 2010
David Ortiz – he should see even better pitches to hit in that lineup
Rounds 16-20 worst:  Alfonso Soriano – I don’t have much confidence that he will do anything
Travis Wood – a draft deep in SP had better options at that point
Rounds 21-25 best:  Marlon Byrd – having a great spring and hitting in the middle of order
Carlos Gomez – real nice speed option late in the draft
Rounds 21-25 worst:  Johan Santana – he may not even pitch; there were better options
 Omar Infante – pretty plain numbers; at least he can play everywhere



Bonus Question: How influenced were your picks by the keeper format ?
In previous drafts, one of my big goals was to improve the quality of my core keepers for the
following year. In 2011, I had more of a focus on doing well in the current year. Having said
that, Hanson is only 24 and I would have gone hard after Bryce Harper if he were available.
In this league, once you lock up a superstar it provides a real advantage. Look at Regulators with
Pujols/Cabrera or Dumplings with Hanley/Braun. While their teams each year have been solid
throughout, the numbers their multiple superstars produce are tough to beat.
In conclusion, I was fairly pleased with most of my selections, and didn’t appear to have a “Nate
McClouth” moment like last year.


Flushing Johns  (J. Johnson, B. Wilson, P. Alvarez, A. Mccutchen, A. Dunn, J. Pierre)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?
My draft strategy was driven mostly by the weak group of players I had available as keepers. My team is missing anything near a player who could be considered a superstar. In fact, my top 3 keepers (McCutchen, Dunn and Josh Johnson) have been going with an ADP in the 4th round, with my other 3 keepers even lower. So my keeper strategy was to try to start with a good foundation in every stat category (thus keeping Wilson for Saves and Pierre for steals).
In the draft, I wanted to get some HR players... grab a 2nd decent closer quickly (I know, WAIT on closers... but they have trade value as well)... concentrate on 3 or 4 high strikeout SP's... get 2 or 3 guys who could develop into better keepers going forward.
How did I do? First, there wasn't a lot of power after the keepers came off the board, but I got Johnson at 2B and Swisher in the OF who should help. I got Soria in round 2 to kick off the first closer run, giving me 2 of the top 4 or so closers (and some mid-season trade bait I hope). I also ended up with a few closers-in-waiting. I'm comfortable with my SP's and there are always some available on the waiver wire. I wish I would have gotten a couple more young players to develop into keepers, but I'm looking for Stubbs to be a 25 / 25 or better player, and holding my breath with Ackley and the Kila-monster.

2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
Steal of the draft? Michael Morse in round 23 (I wanted him and lost track along the way). I'm not sure I saw any obvious reaches.

Tuscaloosa Dumplings  (H. Ramirez, R. Braun, M. Kemp, K. Youkilis, C. Lee, R. Weekes)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?

My basic strategy going into the draft this year was quite a bit different than past years for a few reasons.  This was the first year I did some extensive research beforehand by religiously checking several sites and doing some of my own cross-referenced research.  I was trying to make sure that I would draft a balance team all around, because in past years I tend to be very good in a few select categories, then awful at others.  In order to keep track of how balance my team was as I drafted, I set up a spreadsheet that would help me more easily see what stats I had, and what type of players I would need to help in that stats i was neglecting.  The only real problem with my plan was that the draft at times would go so fast I had trouble keeping up with my spreadsheet, but it worked pretty well overall.  


Looking back at the draft, I feel my plan was executed pretty successfully but could have been better.  There was a lot of players that i wanted, but didn't want to reach too far for, then missed out on them because of it.  While there are always headaches, I feel i drafted a pretty balanced team (especially on offence).  


2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?
I feel my best pick overall was Vlad Guerrero in Round 15, or Tim Hudson in Round 17.  Both are established veterans, getting a little bit on the old side, but should provide some solid stats for that late in the draft.  Veterans seem to get heavily discounted in this league it seems. 



My worst pick in the draft was Matt Thornton in Round 11.  Even though the closers were flying off the board, I don't feel too confident that Thornton will keep his job all year long, and picking him in Round 11 was a little early.  



The best overall pick in the draft this year was Geovani Soto in Round 10 by the Regulators.  With all the good catchers being kept, Soto was really the only decent one left before the drop off and he got to pick him in Round 10.  

My opinion of the worst overall pick this year was Bryce Harper in Round 7 (Sorry Sully's).  He has all the potential in the world, but picking someone who most likely won't see the Majors this year and possibly a lot of next year was far too early, though i do understand in a way.  If he was picked later on in the draft it would have made more sense to me.  

Bonus Question:  How influenced were your picks by the keeper format? I.E. were you drafting to win this season or more drafting a core that can be competitive for 3-4 seasons? 
My team has been quite competitive over the past few years so I was definitely drafting to win this year.  I have a solid core of young talent that I'm definitely willing ot work with and change if needs be, but I feel my team can definitely be competitive again this year.  
The Schwartz  (R. Halladay, U. Jimenez, T. Lincecum, R. Cano, J. Bautista, B. Butler)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?

2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft?

Emerson Tigers  (J. Hamilton, M. Holliday, E. Andrus, D. Pedroia, M. Wieters, A. Beltre)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?

2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft? 

Regulators  (A. Pujols, M. Cabrera, D. Wright, S. Choo, F. Hernandez, C. Kershaw)
1) Did you have a specific strategy for this season's draft? Do you think were able to execute it?
My draft didn't go as planned.  I had a few strategies, but only one panned out, and that was to have above average SP.  The prevailing logic this spring has been that SP is very deep and you should wait to grab your aces.  With two aces already on
my staff, I decided to go against the grain and grab my 3rd SP early to try to get a leg up in pitching.  It may work, or Liriano could get injured and I'm back where I started.

The rest of the draft was a crapshoot.  I only got one closer with a secure job.  My middle infield is shaky.  There were a few sleepers that I wanted to roster, but I missed the boat on nearly all of them because I waited too long and because of my
draft position at the end of the line .  Also, I think that that most of you guys were targeting the same "sleepers" as I was.  So I basically ended up taking alot of guys that were ignored or coming off injury in recent years.  The only guy I
really jumped for was Tabata, who I felt I would not get otherwise because of our resident Pirate fan in the league.

But the truth is that all in all, I had a great time on draft night.  It's alot of fun to build a roster, even if it doesn't consist of the players that you wanted.  I bet that the draft has about a 25% impact on your finish.  5-10% is trading
(variable depending on individual manager tendencies), and probably 65-70% of your destiny is determined by your overall manager activity (or inactivity), which mainly consists of consistent roster upkeep and tweaking, watching closer (and other
position) battles, keeping an eye on good prospects and callups, grabbing hot hitters and sleeper SP's before someone else gets to them.  The draft is just a small (but important) part of your season.

2) What were the reaches and steals of the draft? 
The only pick of mine that I liked was Soto in the 10th.  I paired him with Iannetta in the 24th, so I should have decent production from that position if all goes as planned.

The best pick of the draft was, by far, Adam Jones in the 17th.  Peter Bourjos in the 21st was also a good snag.  But the Jones pick was terrific.

My bad picks were many, some of which were:  Furcal in the 14th, Aardsma in the 16th and Farnsworth in the 23rd

Was Bryce Harper the worst pick of the draft?  Call me in 2015.

Bonus Question: Was your draft influenced at all by the keeper format? Did you draft to build a competitive team for the near future or did you draft to compete mainly this year?

The fact that it is a keeper doesn't really change my draft strategy.  I'm lucky enough to have Cabrera and Pujols on the same team, so it's alot harder for me to screw up my team with a bad draft, although I tried my best this year.


All in all it seemed as though there was a bit more strategic thinking going on this season than in season's past.  Additionally, there were only a small handful of moves made once players cleared waivers, which is usually an indication that people were pleased with their teams, a far cry from last season.  Time will tell.

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