Saturday, March 12, 2011

Open Thread: Trade Review

I recently came across an offseason keeper league trade that looked a little like this:

Team A trades ATL 2B Dan Uggla to Team B for MIL 2B Rickie Weeks and TB Util Ben Zobrist

My initial reaction was that the team gaining Uggla was clearly the winner of the deal, namely because it was consolidating talent in fewer players, and as this league only allows 6 keepers (no penalties) it was much better to be on the "one" side of a two for one.  Team B also has the benefit of knowing that with Uggla he'll get consistent production, something neither Zobrist, and especially not Weeks can attest to.  There were other factors too.  Uggla is has moved from a very difficult power park to hit home runs in to a much more favorable one.  He's also moved to a lineup that, if Chipper Jones can have a modicum of health, will have much more protection for him.  He'll even gain the added benefit of not having to face the formidable Braves pitching staff 15 times a year, which could realistically add 2-3 home runs by itself.

If my review had stopped there I would have simply congratulated Team B on an excellent job of selling high on Weeks and moved on.  I happen to know both of the managers involved here though, and I could quite reconcile what I'd found with what I know of him.  I decided to ask him why he'd made the deal.  His response:

"As one of the quirks in this league we do not allow Yankees players to be rostered.  Not only does that pull a great deal of offense in general out of the league, but especially offense at the premium positions of shortstop and second base.  With Cano and Jeter off of the board it makes those two positions incredibly top-heavy.  Now, obviously I'm taking a slight leap of faith here in that I'm hoping Weeks can stay healthy again for at least 400 at-bats, but Zobrist is a very realistic 20-20 candidate at both SS and 2B.  He likely won't get the at-bats necessary for excellent counting stats because he's continually shuffled in and out of the lineup by Joel Maddon, but he'll still be a top-5 shortstop.  That, combined with the fact that a healthy Weeks is a significant upgrade in speed over Uggla, and the fact that my other keepers include Brian McCann and Adam Dunn means that I have the flexibility to give up the 5-8 home run difference between the two second baggers.  If Weeks improves at all I'll feel like a genius for managing to steal Zobrist as well."

Obviously, he'd thought this through.  Zobrist is of course an extremely valuable player in real life because of his defense and positional flexibility, but he'd dropped off the fantasy map last season due to a terrible BABIP and a regression in HR/FB%.  Maybe he's not a traditional keeper but at least in this league he has some underrated value.  Thoughts?  Are people interested in reading Third Party trade analysis articles?

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