Offseason Bios: Buffalo Stampede

Team: Buffalo Stampede
Owner: Jeremy Smith
2012 Finish: 5-8-0, 7th place overall
Budget as of 1/1/13: $177.00
Draft Pick Situation: 2013: extra RD2, 2014 all intact

Contract Years Committed to 2013 (filled to reflect a full starting lineup of players): 31


RFA-eligible Players (likely to be retained in red):
Jay Cutler, Beanie Wells, Anquan Boldin, Scott Chandler, Brandon Pettigrew, Reggie Hodges, Matt Bryant, Geno Atkins, Kyle Williams, Brian Robison, Larry Foote, Chad Greenway, Tamba Hali, Janoris Jenkins, Leodis Mckelvin, Madieu Williams, Major Wright, DET, Willis McGahee, Ray Lewis

Projected 2013 Starting Lineup:*

QB: Eli Manning
RB: Adrian Peterson
RB: Reggie Bush
WR: Dez Bryant
WR: Roddy White
FLEX: Michael Crabtree
TE:  X
PK:  X
PN:  X
DE/DT1: Jason Pierre-Paul
DE/DT2:  X
DE/DT3:  X
DE/DT4:  X
LB1: Von Miller
LB2:   X
LB3:  X
CB1: Brandon Browner
CB2:  X
S1: Jarius Byrd
S2:  X
OFF:  X

TS:
  X

*No RFAs are used to make this lineup.

Weaknesses:
Jeremy was the victim of the Luck Dragon in 2012, finishing with easily the highest points-against average in the league at 169.9 per week.  This isn't to say that he would have been a playoff team with a regressed opposition average though, as he scored at only the 7th highest clip.  Balancing out the transcendent performance of Adrian Peterson were significant negative regressions by Eli Manning, Reggie Bush and Jason Pierre-Paul as well as injuries to Willis McGahee and Malcolm Floyd.  Whether the Stampede improve in 2013 will depend on whether these players can rebound to compensate for the inevitable decline from All-Day.  It's not a guarantee that a decline is coming, but to expect another 2000-yard season is to be unrealistically optimistic.  Aside from these disappointments the TE position is currently a mess with neither potential candidate finishing in the starter range (top-10 positionally).  RB2 is also of significant concern as after Peterson there's Reggie Bush and not much else.  The defense appears to be solid to above-average led by Von Miller, JPP and Brandon Browner with plenty of room to take advantage of the scoring changes. DET Off will likely be swapped out but any change will be a positive there.  One huge black eye is the lack of ANY Taxi Squad players.

Likely Off Season Targets:
The bright side is that Jeremy has significant money to play with in the offseason, and his lineup's weaknesses are big enough weaknesses that even getting to league average at the TE/RB2/QB positions could mean a weekly increase of 10pts/week, which would vault his team into the top 2-3.  I expect that he will spend quite a bit of attention on the availability of Heath Miller and Aaron Hernandez, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him offer some straight cash-for-player deals to avoid having to trade Peterson or Dez Bryant, who has finally emerged as a legitimate WR1.  If Michael Crabtree's late-season usage rate is the norm and not an aberration he will slide in nicely at the Flex spot behind Bryant and Roddy White.  The biggest question mark in my opinion is the QB position.  Eli was elite last year but finished 2012 outside of the top 10.  If he doesn't rebound to at least that level Jeremy will likely need to pay through the nose for an upgrade.  Unfortunately for him the two teams with "extra" QBs are John and Phil Sanders, neither of whom would likely part with one for anything less than Adrian Peterson, a lateral move for Jeremy.

Hypothetical Trades:
$60 for CJ Spiller
2014 RD1 for Heath Miller
$20 and 2014 RD2 for CJ2K
2014 RD1 for David Wilson

2013 Outlook:
Pretty rosy.  Though the ppw results of 2012 weren't overly impressive, the replacement level of the bad parts of Jeremy's lineup were the worst in the league.  If he's active on the UFA or trade market he can effect some significant improvement without compromising his financial advantage.  If he feels comfortable spending some real cash or draft picks however, he could be even better.  It's not generally the best strategy to build a dynasty team around the position with the highest attrition in the league, but if you're going to, Adrian Peterson is the one guy to pin your hopes on.  If Jeremy can fill his RB2/TE slots and experience some helpful regression from Eli he should see himself in the playoffs next season.  If Eli doesn't bounce back to pre-2012 levels or Peterson suffers more than a 20% downturn, expect another season filled with frustrating "what if?" questions and another offseason of rebuilding.