Off Season Profiles: Chinese Mafia

Team: Chinese Mafia
Owner: Da Chang
2012 Finish: 2-11-0, 10th place overall
Budget as of 1/1/13: $153.00
Draft Pick Situation: All intact for 2013 and 2014

Contract Years Committed to 2013 (filled to reflect a full starting lineup of players): 32


RFA-eligible Players (likely to be retained in red):
J. Freeman, M. Vick, A. Green, J. Stewart, D. Thomas, P. Garcon, J. Finley, H. Miller, K. Huber, B. Mebane, H. Melton, M. Bennett, M. Shaughnessy, M. Boley, L. Briggs, C. Williams, G. Quinn, A. Rolle, SFO, J. Ballard

Projected 2013 Starting Lineup:*

QB: R. Tannehill
RB: D. McFadden
RB: M. Turner
WR: M. Austin
WR: J. Jones
FLEX: D. Jackson
TE: C. Fleener
PK: G. Zuerlin
PN: X
DE/DT1:  X
DE/DT2:  X
DE/DT3:  X
DE/DT4:  X
LB1: P. Willis
LB2:  X
LB3:  X
CB1: D. Hall
CB2:  X
S1:  X
S2:  X
OFF:  X

TS:
D. Johnson
M. Sanu
F. Cox
M. Whitney
H. Smith

*No RFAs are used to make this lineup.

Weaknesses:
There are a number of weaknesses on this team, though expectations are low enough for 2013 that nearly any growth is a positive.  As of the publication of this post, manager Da Chang fields below-average starters at every position except WR1/WR2.  Especially concerning is the lack of top talent at QB and DE/DT.  Deficiencies at OFF/TE can be overcome by the retention of RFAs SFO and Heath Miller, but Da will have to be lucky with his 5 2013 draft picks and invest a large portion of his FAAB into acquiring some top talent if he hopes to compete.  This roster brings to mind the roster of 2011 team Snooki MonsterOMNOMNOMNOM, which ended up spending close to $240 on UFAs in order to become relevant.  Chinese Mafia scored an average of 135.6ppw in 2012, last in the league and 27.0ppw less than the 4th playoff seed.  Specific needs include upgrades at QB1/RB2/Flex/DE/DT/CB/S/Off/LB.

Likely Off Season Targets:
Without question Da will invest in a new defense, hoping to hit pay-dirt under the new tackle-scoring system.  I anticipate large bids headed towards RFAs Demaryius Thomas and possibly also Eric Decker.  Though WR is currently a strength for the Mafia it is the position with the best talent concentration in this off season and it makes sense for him to convert some of their financial largess into player form in order to deal for the pieces it truly needs.  Additionally, DThomas or EDecker would constitute upgrades at the WR2/Flex positions if retained instead of being dealt.  I expect Da to make a hard push for one of the 3 elite QBs from The Magnetic Turf, possibly packaging DMC with picks and/or cash in order to net a blue-chip asset to build around.  Regardless, Chinese Mafia should be a major player in UFA/RFA and I expect him to retain all of his picks in order to build a foundation.

Hypothetical Trades:
Run-DMC + 2 RD1 picks for M. Ryan
DMC for A. Hernandez
$70 for C. Newton

2013 Outlook:
Bleak unless Phil decides to part with one of his QBs for less than he's asked for in the past.  I see this as an evaluation year where Da takes stock of what pieces he has and gets a feel for what positions to target when he's closer to contending.  The 2013 off season lacks the impact talent at RB and QB that we enjoyed last year so he'll need to be careful that he's not spending to spend, and instead makes wise long-term investments.  With careful allocation of financial assets and a very active trade market I see Da going into 2014 with a chance at a .500 record, but not before.  With a gap of 30ppw separating him from the playoffs as-is it would be overly optimistic to expect Da to overcome it in one off-season.  The long game is definitely in play.  The first step is to gain as many player assets as possible and then trade off as many sell-high players as are produced in order to retain the ability to strike when top talent becomes available.  I anticipate a 10th place finish and 4 wins in 2013.  This is a franchise on the rise, but that likely won't become apparent until 2014.